Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Optionpro007, Oct 12, 2006.
Can somebody tell me what happened today ?
Never mind I got it.
What exactly happened? USDA??
Just because . . .
We are in an extended Bull Trend.
Monday, at 10:31 am EST the Market created a new extended and failing bottom in that Bull Trend. (Simply put it was creating a HL)
Tuesday, at 10:55 am EST the Market signaled a trade entry in the creation of that failing bottom in the Bull Trend.
Wednesday, at 1:16 pm the Market verified that the previous entry was valid by changing it from a failing bottom to a failed bottom.
Thursday, the news made it all good.
Friday is dinner and a movie.
Saturday is college football.
Sunday is the NFL.
Life is good.
I don't trade OJ, but a quick look at the charts tells me that the only way a trader would have caught this move would have been by staying long on the weekly chart and following the reaction lows etc. There is something important to remember about OJ. It is not the same as Grains where one bad year can be made up the next year. with OJ, Cocoa and Coffee, the rebuilding of the crop after events like hurricanes etc takes a long time. --Planting trees etc. Thus, you can have a multi year steady uptrend in these "softs".
Holy crap. I just looked at this yesterday, and i have to disagree, the few days previous did appear to be a pattern i look for.
Perhaps it's not a ross hook, but has a particular curvy buildup i like to see.
I do wonder sometimes...
Hey, it worked for donald rumsfeld
That is a crazy move though, i find it difficult to beleive nobody seemed to be aware of the fundamentals to the extent they (evidently ) were'nt.
I realise "farmers talk" is more relevant in grains, but a move like this you'd think the info was highly classified.
What, nobody had an inkling?
but I must admit, as I was buying those march puts, I made a mental note to make sure that regardless of what would happen I will keep them to expiration.
as b1s2 pointed out, I had no idea these type of commodities would behave in the way he explained earlier. It makes complete sense.
And your account made was also right on. Still, I had to follow through with my original plan, for better or for worse. At least I am getting very good at following my plans though. I definitely need to look at the long term trend seriously and stop being mr hero.
B1S2, I respect the way you trade because you are consistent in your approach but others don't necessarily look at what you do or for the matter, what I do. This will give you a start.
For Orange Juice, I use a sub 10 tick and sub 50 tick chart to verify and confirm extreme resistance and support levels in long term established trends because Volume Bar Charts don't exist yet. I don't get caught in major retracements because I don't use time as an indicator or a foundation for any of my trading decisions. I view each market as a separate entity and use objective rules to tell me whether a trade is ultra-conservative, conservative, aggressive or ultra-aggressive. It's like a menu at a restaurant. What set-ups do I feel like trading today. You can't ever go wrong being conservative . . . lol
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