But you are not sure. Run a back test against any trades you have been successful with and see how it works out.
I don't need to for reasons specified that stops are only effective intra day and these trade are multiple months long sometimes. Stops would have little effect on the overall strategy anyway so might as well just ignore them and save in fees and incremental losses. The reason you guys have no confidence to pull this trade is because you have no confidence in your trading skills. If I am legging in I am certain of where we are in terms of potential bottom.
I'm probably overconfidant in my trading skills!! You haven't actually put this into practice, have you. In your writing there are a lot of should,could, and if's. If you have put it into practice you must have some examples of real trades and some real performance statistics. Now if you are certain of where the bottom is why not take a full position?
The Nikkei took 35 years to come back from the high of 1989. Sure if you're immortal, that'll do it....
Potential bottom. I'm buying at certain levels and I know how far each level can potentially go. If you don't understand EW this trade won't make sense to you. Have I tried this? It's the only way I trade...it's the only way to trade. You guys trade retail style like every YouTube video sells you.
Never seen a trading discussion run this long without numbers to back it up. Just back and forth banter. It's like trying to argue if God exists... Dude, start a journal with 100 forward live trades. Document your stats/performance. If results support your stance, great! We should all learn you way of trading. If not, you need to get presriptions for the hallucinations.
So what are your annual returns? Not just for your trades but for the whole portfolio, which I gather spends a lot of time in cash if the market is climbing. You say you don't have a position at this time. SPY is up around 10% YTD. Are you going to be sitting in cash all year if we don't have a correction? I swing trade, individual stocks, with stops, not one losser in the portfolio! YTD I'm up about 12%.
100 trades? That would take 100 years For example the trade I'm currently waiting for I will start legging in sometime around May-June and then again in the fall if it double corrects. I would probably be going all in on the trade as it is an etf. This is why I've had so much time to troll and make spreadsheets!
No I'm not in SPY...better use of capital. I wouldn't touch it up here either even if it could run some more. I don't have a portfolio...I have one off, all in trades.