I mean the bottom for today? One hellava "selloff" wouldn't you say? hardly retraced at all while going down. The behavior of this market today is not normal action. This is not a "normal" selloff. Something else afoot here. Wouldn't you say?
It is the strongest selloff we've seen in a while. I doubt we're going to close very strongly today. Wouldn't be surprised to see it continue the rest of this week... I'd say we're heading back to test that 975 area. After that, who knows... anyways, it's just a theory. Predictions aren't that useful, especially in a market as manipulated as this one.
I didn't get a damn thing off the open was anxious to bank , 1/2 hour later i saw my chance. i bought the retracement. and the next. next. and next what a crock EDIT: needless to say i bought as it dropped
Maybe. If CNBC starts telling the dummies to buy the dips over the next few days, I'd agree with you.::: do you really think were going to hit 10000 and stay above this month?? really cmon now consolidation or down that's it. The report on friday wont have the effect for a bull resume move the only thing that will make me and my account wrong is earnings so well look to that and either you or I can come back and gloat...
Anything is possible. Stay above 10,000? No way. Get there? Definitely a possibility. Don't know about this month - not making time predictions here. The market is like a poker game. The more people believe something is going to happen, the less likely it is. I'm not saying we won't see some more selling from here. I'm saying be very careful about calling this the end of the rally. That's what people were doing 2 months ago, and look what happened. I expect short-term selling, but I will be watching the price action very closely to see if it's likely to be real, or if this is another chance to screw the shorts like they did before. When the government is interfering in the markets like the way they are now, all bets are off. Psychologically, they could run it down, get people believing that the top is in, let the shorts get nice and loaded up and then screw them royally by jamming it up over 10,000. Think about how bullish everyone would be then. Twice they called the top and twice they got creamed - the third time nobody will be calling tops, and that's when it really will be the top. The stupid lemmings probably won't believe that it's a new bull until they see a 10k print. I doubt that they would bring it this close to 10k without pushing it above that level, so be careful. When CNBC brings out the party hats and everyone in your clueless circle of family and friends is thinking that it's all roses now, short your ass off and hold. As always this is not a prediction, just one possible scenario. Keep that in mind... it could also severely drop from here, but that is far from certain at this point.
Dollar spike http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?code=BSTK and... Any such move would be a major blow to investment banks which service commodities hedging operations for Chinese SOEs on the international market. (Caijing.com.cn) China's state-owned enterprises may unilaterally terminate commodities contracts as they try to cut massive losses from financial derivatives, an industry source told Caijing on August 28. According to the source, China's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has sent notice to six foreign financial institutions informing them that several state-owned enterprise will reserve the right to default on commodities contracts signed with those institutions. Keith Noyes, an official with the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a trade organization, confirmed that he is aware of the matter, but provided no further comment. Foreign brokerages usually work through their Hong Kong operations to sign over-the-counter derivative hedging contracts, according to an investment banker whose firm is involved in the business. Hong Kong and Singapore usually serve as venues for arbitration over such transactions. Most investment banks may "just swallow" any losses arising from canceled contracts, the executive said, adding that any losses are usually made up for with compensating trades. Investment banks "just earn less" from such transactions, he said. But any such move would be a major blow to investment banks which service massive commodities hedging operations for Chinese SOEs on the international market, said the executive. Chinese SOEs have suffered massive losses from hedging contracts since the onset of the global financial crisis. SASAC and the National Auditing Office has been investigating derivatives positions trading since the beginning of the year. A source from a state-owned company told Caijing that most of Chinaâs SOEs engaging in foreign exchange and international trade have participated in derivatives trading, involving capital topping 1 trillion yuan. http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-28/110230655.html http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2470412
Do you simply react to the action day by day or do you develop 'scenarios', ie preconception or bias before the day unfolds? I thought before you said don't have a bias just go with the action, but now you say "i will be watching..i expect.."??
I do both. For fun, I keep track of the longer term trend and do a bit of analysis. In practice I scalp all day and take momentum trades on crude oil, so the larger trend is generally irrelevant unless we are at a major support/resistance level. I am always aware of those. Sometimes it helps to get a picture of the overall trend because it can help you to determine whether a move is legit or not, but generally it's not all that useful to me on a day to day basis. It's a minor help.
Yes. Distorted action for the last two weeks beyond just thin August volume. There could be a surprise in store later.