it looks like were setting up for a pullback in april--just like in 2012, 2011 and 2010. But really, what are the chances this happens AGAIN?!? 4 years in a row of the same seasonal pattern? I'd rather take the contrary angle and say that this pattern breaks, which means we stay in a low volume upward trend. I'm about 60% still long but with a large put option on an April expiration company that keeps seeing the bid and ask drop lower from my entry yesterday
You might want to research 3,5,8,13 (Fibonacci numbers) and 3,4,7,11 (lucas numbers) in relation to your day count context. Not saying I disagree with you, just this could be a very subtle technical chart painting in what seems to be a very contrived market. Trade On!
Double size POMO tomorrow and a quadruple on Friday. BEN will be raising the limit of our Dear Leader's credit card by $7.5-9.25b before the end of the week. And you doomers wonder why the tape won't go down....
of course there are people making money, everyone who is trading aligned with the trend is making money, whether usdjpy, yen weakness in general, equity markets...And as usual all those who believe they are smart enough to pick tops and bottoms are getting slaughtered. Nothing new here. You obviously belong to the latter group. You may as well take this as a turning point in your trading approach.
to the op, i feel your pain and understand where you're coming from. however there are simple yet effective solutions to prevent this (fighting uptrend) from happening... use a short term (like 10) period MA and don't short unless price is below. this alone would have kept you out of so many bad trades focus on price alone and ignore conspiracy theories, manipulation, etc - it doesn't matter. if you feel there is a high prob of the mkt falling, at least use a tight stop (like 1 ATR using past 5 days of data) - if you get stopped out you can always reenter.
10 STRAIGHT up days in a row on the DOW, how many years hasnt this happened in? now over 15 years or so? Yesterday was 9 straight days and that last record was set in 1996! Down day is coming very soon, probably in another 17 days.