were value investors,we're not really concerned what the market is doing today. we usually hold our positions for 3-5 years. if there is value,we buy it. how many times have you all heard that bullshit! listen to any so called wall street guru and thats what he will say. its all ablout value. listen to me; its all ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR A STOCK!
Some research with neural nets years ago by a guy named Hessler showed that nothing beyond about 5 days is very predictable at all... personally I think that can be stretched out to a quarter maybe... If you are a value investor you are banking on the idea that the economy will continue to grow at some point... the best long term schemes depend on that, as in waiting for the indexes to be below their 200 week averages and loading up on the best companies with long track records... the underlying assumption in that is that the economy will be growing again sometime down the road... there is always uncertainty in that really, there have been periods decades long wherein economies did not, indeed, grow... I'm not going to be a value investor until I have so much money I can't day and swing trade with it all...
My favorite is "I'm not buying until it gets down to 'my price'" Then it gets to "their price" and voila, the air went out of the balloon.
Based upon data dating back to 1930, I could not find any rolling ten-year period in the U.S. in which real GDP growth was negative. Were you referring to earlier times or non-U.S. economies?
How can you tell? The calculation of "real" GDP includes a government provided adjustment for inflation... which they always understate. What we have called "growth" has always had a high money-print inflation component... and GDP is measured in "final prices"... not "number of units of goods and services produced". Had GDP been correctly measured that way, the US could easily have been in recession for at least the last 5 years.
You might be correct; however, without the benefit of an alternative value, we can only speculate about what the "right" answer might be.
Value investors are pretty much the only reason markets come out of bear markets. If the world was full of traders, everyone would be on the sidelines waiting for a move. So the more diversity, the better markets we have.