The reasoning was that the VIX was at a absurdly high level... and, albeit it "could" have gone higher and higher still..... the "probability" was that we would have a quick, fast, sharp reversal of trend.... not a slow, gradual one like you mention..... that happened in the old days; when I was a kid. Not nowadays in these computer driven markets. So far as I am concerned I would NOT have jumped in. But to be honest, lately all this stuff I learned can be thrown out the window and rolling the dice seems the way to go in these shell game markets where trends change EVERY week. every time I wait patiently, it seems to be too long and we are up another 10% (or down); jmho
Now we know it is a fact: You were bearish at the exact bottom! Are you well? When will people learn that the trend they see is hindsight, and that what matters is the trend they do not see yet --- the real trend.
So you think its impossible to get out of a short with a profit in this market? Do you think that all trend traders only identify the trend long after it has become a trend and thus lose? If so you are sadly mistaken. My point was that if there was a PROVEN trend in multiple time frames there was no need to jump in and try to call the exact bottom. As a trend trader we are obviously lagging in our trades. BUT, that does not mean we are losing. So as this thing turned around over the last few days I got out of shorts and have put on some longs. So as a matter of fact I AM feeling like a genius....and STILL laughing at people like you that think catching a falling knife is the right thing to do. Maybe you have made some money in the last few days,...but you sure took on a lot more risk in doing it. If it works for you great. I know my system works for me and with ALOT less risk The whole point of trading is to make money while minimizing risk. If you think you were in a situation of minimal risk when you went long...well then we will just disagree.
Who do you think you are? You think I care that you studied at CME? What do want a medal?.....or a chest to pin it on? SERIOUSLY, I dont give a sh*t if you were Warren Buffett himself. As for my credential,...I studied on my own. I studied in Wall Street University--the school of hard knocks...and you know what "hotshot" my lessons make me money. Even as a trend trader I made 14% in the last 2 months with never more than 2% draw down during that time....all the while the market was in a trading range....can you same the same "hotshot"? You think I am not aware of multiple timeframes and mutiple trends? I am not going to sit here and argue with you over this stupid trade. If you think you were right,...good for you. Personally, I think you got rewarded for doing the WRONG thing. My point is that you took too much risk for this reward. As I said before if the market goes higher and wants to show me it is taking shape into a trend higher I will join in....as a trend trader I FOLLOW the trend I DO NOT try to predict the bottom or tops. Many a fortune has been lost in calling tops and bottoms....but good luck to you on that one,....."hotshot"....
I like your mindset. From your posts I can read that you are a profitable trend follower and already wisened up enough to understand that predictions are pointless. Trends always ignite with a commonly repeated pattern and give traders enough time to hop on board. Let the scalpers and speculators who criticize you gamble their money away with their amateurish approach on the market. Eventually they will seek up advice from someone who knows how to recognize trends and profit from them consistently, or give up altogether.