Just an afterthought here - if we did manage to close red today, that'd be very ominous. It'd represent massive profit taking telling us the markets are deeply skeptical (rightfully so) of anything WFC had to say, and that it won't risk not banking profit given the tremendously bad earnings about to come pouring in like festering sewage.
Lets see what CRE losses look like at YE. They are already underwater on Billions that they are marking-to-myth. The accounting change not only makes them look profitable, it makes them look solvent, which is much more important. If they simply reorganized the five main problems banks, we could get on with it already, but apparently that ain't happening anytime soon.
this rally is pretty crazy. they must wait for technical levels to release "news" I'm trailing my stops here. we get up closer to sp 900 I'm scaling some out.
This rally has been carefully planned and set up right from the opening move when Pandit's memo was leaked. The timing was chosen to start an uptrend before the Fed announcement and various other reports that would sustain the rising chart. The upslope brings in more technical traders , which is virtually everyone in this market, and so it feeds on itself. The chart has been starting to roll over so why not have a major bank pre-announcement out of the blue but at the perfect time to preserve that slope. Maybe I'm a little too conspiracy minded, but I think the people who move the markets have at least a 3 month schedule of little market-nudging tricks. They've already decided how far to run this up with the appropriate news and then will start a systematic campaign of negative news to run it down. Does anyone else think there's a schedule out there or did the CEO of Wells Fargo just wake up early today and decide to announce 2 weeks early ?? Who do you think gave the call to Pandit and Atkins ?
Or it's the fact that there were a number of groups on the OTHER end of the decline - those that were net short mid 2008. It's about the right time for those books to begin showing up.
Yes M2Model is exactly it. I'm going long Eur/Usd 100 lots 700x leverage and I'm going to mark to my model and buy a Bentley Continental and a 500k condo on SoBeach. It's funny how these banks can run their mouths now that the gov't saved them. Their business models are failed- the gov't bailed them out and is allowing the models to continue to live. Just like portfolio insurance, then the S&L crisis, LTCM, and now-- it ALWAYS gets worse. I don't even want to fathom what's in store for us next time.