Well, I gotta go

Discussion in 'Forex' started by oldtime, Apr 29, 2012.

  1. Starting a little early this weekend. Hit a new account high Thursday and got flat. Now, for the first time in a long time I get to feel what it feels like to go into the weekend flat.

    I'm just like a little ES trader and can't wait for the market to open Monday morning, only in my case it opens 17:15 Sunday et.

    Kept the same position on in the paper account and apparently it would have made even more money if I had hung on.

    AUD/USD I have been short as long as I can remember, and everytime I close everything out, that is the one glaring loss.

    Not sure how I will play it this week

    the winning trade was

    short AUD/USD
    long GBP/USD
    short USD/CAD
    long USD/CHF
    short USD/JPY

    so I've just slightly tipped my bias to short USD

    But short against what?

    as bad as USD is, everybody else also has a good case for going down

    Gold is interesting, DX 83 gold low
    DX 78 Gold high

    but how long will that last?

    If somebody could give me the real value of gold I would feel a little more confident trading it.

    I have a lot of money in the bank. I use to think it was just sitting there, now that I am trading forex I see it is going up and down everyday.
     
    #41     Jul 22, 2012
  2. got flat again Thursday at another new account high. Hopefully I am not getting complacent, but it does seem at the moment like taking candy from a baby.

    the spread now is always the same

    aud vs cad

    gbp vs eur

    and USD/JPY always in reserve if you want a USD bias

    Martingale your losers, and if you can put on the spread at a more favorable price than you entered with your winners, go for it

    Very difficult to get long EUR with all the news fundamentals

    Thank g-d for sim, like the man said, when it goes to hell, that is a good time to put it on for real
     
    #42     Jul 29, 2012
  3. You're out of USDJPY? Lost some of its steam late in the day. I expect a 78.20-79.00 range this week. I am long the 77/79.65 DNT (2xKO) that expires Friday NY Fix from 100/127.
     
    #43     Jul 29, 2012
  4. well good luck, that goddamn pair didn't do me a hell of a lot of good last week, all it did was just sit there

    what is a DNT?

    yeah 78.18 was where I got in at, and that was about where I got out at
     
    #44     Jul 29, 2012
  5. Ahh, I figured you got out on the rally. Double no touch (path-dependent). If 77.00 or 79.65 is touched this week I lose the premium. Paying 100/127 refers to the premium (numerator) and the payout (denom). I earn 27% on the bet if neither barrier is touched. Losing the entire premium if touched.

    There are also double KOs that are euro-style and can touch the KO barriers, but must expire within the range to payout.
     
    #45     Jul 29, 2012
  6. ah shit man, you are so far ahead of me I will never catch up. I'll google some of that stuff. Are you talking about binaries? I might have been good at that one time when I was young. I grew up in Indianapolis, and in the fifth grade I had a pool going where when I finally had all the bets covered on the Indy 500 the worst I could do was break even.

    but now I am kind of old and slow thinking
     
    #46     Jul 29, 2012
  7. Yes, you can think of it in terms of a sports bet.

    The risk is convex until the barrier is reached or the option expires. Think of a sport prop-bet analogy in which you're betting on hits per inning in baseball, or a prop O/U. If you're betting on the under at 10.5 and the Mets score 5 in the second (lol) you'll going to take a hit on the marks.
     
    #47     Jul 29, 2012
  8. when I finally got the whole deal done and started bragging about no matter who won I couldn't lose, the teacher started making a big deal about what a bad guy I was.

    But she never understood the risk I had to take to put it all on.
     
    #48     Jul 29, 2012
  9. not even worth posting this week, hoping the gap would bail me out, but no such luck

    everything that sould be up is down
    and everything that shoud be down is up

    Hit a new account high Thursday (that's getting to be a pattern) but I didn't take it because it was "not enough"

    Now I'm on week two with this miserable position

    AUD/USD short
    EUR/USD short
    GBP/USD long
    USD/CAD short
     
    #49     Aug 5, 2012
  10. not sure what that was all about, just sold some more EUR/USD at 2443
     
    #50     Aug 5, 2012