I propose the following hypotheses: 1) the USA is well on the way to becoming a socialist country, revisiting the FDR era and probably going even more left-wing than that. The US will end up somewhat more left-wing than France circa 2007. 2) Just like the British Empire after WWI, American after the 2008-10 depression will lose its status as the sole superpower. 3) Significant curtailments of freedom will occur. 4) The social mood will turn sour as people look for scapegoats for their problems. Anyone too pro-capitalist will be castigated - much as they were in Mao's China during the Cultural Revolution - and in many cases they will be legislated against. 5) Law and order will break down periodically, you will see riots and civil disturbances in major metropolitan areas. 6) Immigration will dry up and more and more US subjects will start renouncing their citizenship and/or emigrating. 7) The S&P will continue its bear market to at least 500 and probably 400. Stock exchange volumes will dry up as the country experiences the worst recession/depression since the 1930s. 8) Real estate will continue falling for at least another 2-3 years. Even people with no mortgage will go bankrupt as they cannot afford property taxes (set at price levels 100-300% higher than the current market price). 9) Obama will win a landslide re-election, and small-government will be discredited as a political philosophy for quite some time. 10) Keynes will come back into fashion and governments worldwide will copy Japan in the 1990s, with similarly counterproductive results. 11) A stock transaction tax will eventually be passed. If you are unprepared for these potential scenarios, you will get fucked. Even with full preparation, the next 5-10 years will be tricky to navigate. The ease of going from $0, $10000 or $100,000 to $1 mill+ is now about 10 times harder than it was in the last 25 years. Most current millionaires will lose that status (if they haven't already). On the bright side, real estate and stocks will become incredibly cheap over the next few years. I recommend husbanding cash and a mix of 5 year treasuries and longer-dated TIPS for security of capital. Start researching individual stocks, because by the end of the year, or 2010 at the latest, you will be able to buy the best 20 companies in the world for single-digit P/Es and 5-10% dividend yields. Most small caps will sell for less than their net quick assets/cash. Just as 1932 US stocks, 1975 UK stocks, 1998 Asian and Russian stocks, and 2002 Brazilian stocks provided buying opportunities of a lifetime, so the same will happen in 2009-2010 on a worldwide basis. Get your shopping list ready because you will see bargains that will not be repeated for decades.
I agree with all points except obama winning re-election. If obama can't turn things around by 2012 there will be a massive revolt against him, he built up his entire political career on hope and change. Live by the sword, by the sword.
I have 3 letters for you - F.D.R. The economy was *appalling* throughout the 1930s but he got re-elected more than any president in history. Why? 1) Free market capitalism ethos was seen as out of touch with the times 2) FDR was a good orator 3) There were no good Republican candidates of presidential caliber 4) The Republicans lost their economic credibility by presiding over the bust. By the next election it will be the same. Capitalism will be in retreat, Obama has the charisma and oratorical ability to get sheep to support him, and there are no Republican candidates with any credibility. Lastly, the Bush/Cheney/McCain crew have no economic credibility as they got blindsided by this. The people who saw it coming, half of them are in the Obama camp. The problem is that during the boom and bust, the "free market" people were in charge. I realise they are not remotely free market people, but the public and political class, and the 2000-2008 elites all *think* they were free market people. Thus, free market will become a dirty word for a decade or so, just like in the 1930s and early 40s. The only high profile free market guy with any credibility left is Marc Faber, and he's a Swiss guy living in Thailand - the US is not going to listen to him. Even if he predicts a solar eclipse and the invasion of earth by UFOs, and is proven correct, he will still be ignored. You small-government or conservative Americans had better get used to this fact - you are now the bad guys, you will be scapegoated, taxed, regulated, and taken off dinner party invite lists. That's the new reality. If by some chance Obama is in trouble by 2011/2012, he will just start a minor war to boost his popularity, then get elected on a surge of patriotism much like Bush got after 9/11.
Cutten, I think your posts in this thread might be a little over the top. Even so, are you suggesting that there should not be better regulation given what has occurred? Further, do you actually believe in the nonsense that goes by the name of supply side economics?
The five or six of you are welcome in Russia where we helped them into capitalism and democracy. Or better yet, go to the state of Iraq, where corruption, greed, and capitalism thrive unabated... No doubt yall will feel right at home.
I agree except for immigration. Obama intends to do everything possible to encourage immigration from mexico, latin amercia and africa. The distinction between legal and illegal immigration will be erased. I read an excellent commentary recently comparing Obama's vision for america to the argentina of Juan Peron. Peron, a radical populist, took an Argentina that was among the world's most propserous nations and turned it into the basket case that it has remained for generations. Americans seem to believe we are immune to the laws of economics and that we are guaranteed prosperity. So did the Argentinians.