JMP out on ZIOP-- Ziopharm (3) (ZIOP - $4.85, $202M market cap) announced disappointing news with regard to progress towards securing an SPA for the palifosfamide pivotal trial; reiterate Market Outperform rating and $10 price target. We believe the FDA has likely made a policy change regarding the acceptability of PFS for regular approval but still sees strong PFS advantages as perhaps approvable under its accelerated approval program. As a result of minor protocol changes and completing discussions with the FDA, the palifosfamide Phase III trial will now start in 3Q10, not 2Q10, and will not have an SPA. Our $10 price target continues to be derived from a sum-of-the-parts analysis of the palifosfamide revenue opportunity in sarcoma, including both U.S. sales and ex-U.S. royalties. We view this as a minor setback but expect shares to trade down this morning. However, we maintain a positive outlook for the long term based on our confidence in the efficacy and safety of palifosfamide in sarcoma. We believe that the company has been diligent in seeking advise from key experts and the FDA and that the trial design will be consistent with our previous expectations. While we acknowledge that an SPA would have been seen to lower the risk to the program, the eventual approval decision should still be driven by a compelling demonstration of efficacy. News highlights risks of over-transparency. We believe the primary driver of the stock's weakness will be that management had set very clear expectations for the SPA as a near-certainty to be finalized in the very near term. In our view, the news highlights three points: 1) Nothing is certain with the FDA until it is final; 2) Management's credibility will be challenged by investors, especially in light of the recent equity financing; 3) However, we believe this is consistent with recent FDA views on PFS and that the agency appears committed to enabling the development of palifosfamide
Alright folks here is my thinking in real time. I'm hooked up to Jack's electric box and I'm sucking on the oxygen tank. Whoosh. Ahh. You can take this market one of two ways... it's either breaking down or it isn't. Don't like seeing this large move evaporate it could make buying today problematic. My own feeling is the next job number should shock to the upside and that is where any summer rally will come from-- with a further ignition lit by capping the well... On the flip side the planetary environs aren't too friendly. And we could be due for some big excuses come next earnings period. Can we get a surge before further disappointment? I fear if we go to the beach here and lose what small volume we have the markets will follow the Euro lower... Whoosh. Ahh. I would like to buy the two most powerful stks in my universe now- PPO- (I panicked out today-- it moves awful quick) Why Buy-it turned away from it's 52 week high today it is a stk of strength. This is not a reversal. SPRD- I'm in China and I too am within a stone's throw of a 52 week high @ $10.96, I'm passed blow out earnings and nothing is going to stop me from achieving that high and then new investors. Currently $10.06. this is a good price for SPRD. Those two in replacement for the large lot of VRUS. That's my inclination but what if the market turns negative into the close? I think I'm going to take a 1 hour nap and think about this some more. Whoosh. Ahhhh. ~ stoney
Good Morning. As my intent was to create this portfolio then take a 2 week vacation (Dr's orders) then come back and either crow or eat crow... I must finish the buying now with something unusual-- someone else's idea! In my back n forth with the hedge fund, when my messages become too numerous, my holding times too short and in general I'm just around too much, they send me one of these curt messages- " Here are some names WE like... " it's up for me to read between the lines... Ok they sent me a list of some names-- the two most speculative and lowest price caught my eye... ahem. Anyway to keep everyone happy I'm going to use one of these names today or both. The first is General Moly. a fine gentlemen. (GMO)- From what I have read last night and today and what I see on a chart-- I can easily back this name. More info to come. The other idea was weird- LUB which is some crappy food chain Luby's. I have never even seen one so if any ET'ers out there have had a food experience at a Luby's let me know... less thrilled here but there is a GIANT takeover story --they bought some chain - Fudrucker's I think, out of bankruptcy and so in one swift move have really opened a lot of new Luby doors... how they are going to pay for this massive purchase is a bit of a mystery, I've asked for more facts this am... lets see what they say. Having some friends in the market is good and thought clearing-- one can get so focused on their own watch list they miss other ideas. I am always open to looking at an idea that has already been vetted by an analyst and a fund's manager, it takes a bit of the Enron/ZIOP worry out of the purchase. I can be assured there is meat to the idea, even if the rest of the market ultimately fails to appreciate it. More to come. ~ stoney
Alright it looks like for sure we are going to take a stake in General Moly- I noticed some nice insider buying at higher levels and I was happy when the hedge fund included some insider buying notes in their reply to me. In most basic form- GMO is a molybdenum producer (used in specialty metals, i.e oil /gas drilling, chemicals/food/water/etc processing) on NPV basis (using current production / reserves) trading at 50% discount (has historically been support level). Stoney likes 50% discounts. Especially when whole new mines in Az are going to come on later this year-- that 50% would be 100% and the market will not let that happen. This is a 1 year hold folks!!! I haven't had one of those is so long, lets hope we make it. Regarding LUB- the analyst is sick... but I have located a bank line that can cover this big bill so no surprise there and the price has come all the way back from the big purchase of Fudrucker's news (I have no idea- drinky food chain middle america is my best guess sort of a TGIF) @ $4.10 vs yesterdays $4.50... it's tempting but peter Lynch would kill me, I don't even know what Luby's is- a pancake house??? It's a bet on middle income spending and with rising hours and more saving and hopefully more jobs this may be a wise bet. I already own Wendy's so I feel a theme developing for the rest of the year. On the fence here. And really looking at my list the only other name I really really want to be in is China play CTFO... pe 6 X next year's 45% growth... books kept in China though... I'll recap the portfolio later today. talk to you soon~ stoney
When I construct these portfolios I tend to keep the share amounts to 1000 shares despite the market cap this allows for a properly weighted account. Sometimes that is impossible if the stock is too cheap HTM for example I believe we have 8,000 shares there have to double check but roughly $8K investment. Polypour (PPO)- $21.90- $23.45 OUT. Gain- approx $1,700.00 WENDYS-(WEN) - $ 4.50 -$ 4.18 IN - Loss- approx $500 Westport (WPRT)- $16.10 - $17.80 IN- Gain approx $1,900 SOMAXIN (SOMX) - $4.90- $4.70 IN FLAT VIVO (VIV)- $26.90 - $29.90 OUT - Gain approx $3,000.00 HTM (HTM) - $ 96 c -$95 C IN- FLAT (2X position) IRONWOOD (IRWD) $10.55- $13.40 OUT- Gain approx $3,000.00 L&L Energy (LLEN) $ 8.58- $10.30 IN - Gain (2X position)- approx $3,000.00 Anadarko (APC) $ $42.85- $41.42 (250 shares test position) - Loss $225 ZIOPHARM (ZIOP) $4.50 - $3.50 IN - Loss $1,000 {General Moly (GMO) Just purchased today @ $3.52} So lets do da math- In the good column we have..... $ 9,600 to the good. And in the bad column.... $ 1,725 for a GRAND RETURN OF... $ 7,875. >.> Not sure exactly when i started this thread but that's probably two weeks worth of stoney. Imagine this all year. Yes it's brutal at tax time especially because I run six accounts and constantly use the same ideas and two of those are short time frame trading accounts-- my spending money really, so they will have to be discharged today and those gains booked $15k or so while I let the remaining IN stocks play out for the next month at the hedge fund. I do hope that despite a certain you know who that you all enjoyed this thread. I want to show you that investing can be done by anyone even a stoner in his underwear if you are willing to put in the time and effort. It's not easy not working let me tell you especially with two mortgages and a large dog but STAYING THE COURSE AND RIDING THE WARM HAND will serve you well, always think for yourself and be willing to go the opposite of the masses. Now I really must get my health under control. A few days of salt water baths at the beach (Fire Island) starting next mon. and then two straight weeks of no stress feeding the birds in Ct. I don't care if the co op is suing my family now... I just have to get rid of these tingling feet and hands. We shall re check in July 22nd when I plan to be able to tell you-- all's fine, I've cured myself without a Dr. Yours In Stocks ~ stoney PS: If market goes up just assume CTFO is in there buy > $7.00.
I HATE BLUEBERRY NETTING! dateline shantytown. Back in the city. Folks I can't deny a certain gloom pervades this post. When we last talked we made so much so fast a certain rebound feeling was in the air. Since then we have brought back the double dip scenario, discarded it and now brought it back I was pretty sure the market would go nowhere in my leave. Alas, it's depressing to watch from the woods. The market has tagged 10,000 something like 47 times. To say I'm numb to it would be 100% correct. Yes I still have tingling feet and numb fingers (like they have been sand papered-- my touch of everything is different... my hair, my computer, my car steering wheel-- IT'S MADDENING if you let it which I do.) It's been a month- it's not going away-- just like DOW 10,000 it's in my head every day. I see a HMO Dr tomorrow. I did it. I followed through on my promise-- I made it through my kids camp time before perhaps encountering some distressing news. Once before, twenty or thirty years ago, they hooked me up to an EKG machine and I blew it out. White Coat Syndrome can do that, I just hope we don't go that rout again. You have these moments of perfect clarity and I had one such one on the pitch. On the lawn of my weekend house; I was playing soccer with my kid, the World Cup had inspired me (normally I hate soccer) and it was 110 degrees out and there I was in full glory, shirt off- delivering a crossover blast towards the net, large glass of rum & ginger ale in one hand, the heaving flesh of my right breast unfortunately into the other... and suddenly I was afraid of an heat attack or a heart attack. That delicious boy playing goalie-- so growing up now and about to receive a soccer ball at 40 miles an hour into the gut-- he deserves a dad who's not afraid to go to the Dr when his feet tingle and his touch changes. Lets touch base with some of our stocks and try and catch up a bit. I'm inclined to sell a lot of stuff but I want to make sure my inner negativity is not overwhelming my investing. Something ugly happened last Friday to the indexes that's for sure, several ideas that were doing well turned around that day. WESTPORT- $18.75 and closing in on 52 week high of $20.44 still looks great. LLEN- Case in point to my depression last Thursday they report huge numbers I'll post them later and we are surging through $10 and.... then came Friday. The chart doesn't look as good suddenly @ $ 9.53. CTFO- China Transfer is the exception. It has moved from $5.40 to $7.23. I left a buy order in the system for a small lot at $6.28 but will probably ruin that cost basis today & buy it in size over $7.00. LF- Boy this had a wild ride when I was away. Up 18% on an upgrade and then back down. From $3.88 at the time of our re pick up of coverage here at ET the Frog zoomed to $5.15! Before settling in at $ 4.70. There really is no excuse for missing this move which I did. A buy today perhaps. IOC- Gave us near $9 bucks on the rebound! $46 to $55 plus now $52.64. Trouble is I just checked with the hedge fund and they bought it way up at freakin' $48-... some crossed emails here. Will SELL most likely today having missed the thrust of the move. APC- rallied $7 bucks but never broke the important $50 level. SOLD UA- rallied from $33 to $36 and back. Yet to report earnings wavering here. PPO- really has gone nowhere. I would imagine a huge earnings beat due to prior movements in the name will look into reporting date. STD- Spanish bank ready for it's stress test! $11.30 to $12.70. Don't know what to do here Friday is D Day for the UK stress tests. AKRX- $3.00- $3.40 and now $ 3.32 a nice stock but always in the $3's. SOMX- I believe we bought this at $3.30 have to double check-- this actually look VERY INTERESTING in that it made a lower low @ $2.70 level when I was gone and I might have panic sold if I had seen it! But I'm glad I didn't because she's come roaring back and is now $ 4.00. MATK- Looks bad down $2 in 5 days and near $3 from my purchase. This is a classic case of me jumping the gun on a promising chart before letting the buy zone play out which it never did at $25 area. Will probably just take my lumps and move on. You may remember the hedge funds picks that I jumped on- General Moley GMO and Luby's, as is often the case one has flatlined (GMO) and the other has done quite well (LUB) $4.05 to $5.23. SPRD- frustrating chart made a couple atempts to get back over $9 and did not. Sticking with it. HDY- Our small geo thermal play has held the $1.00 level which is sweet- we are up on a pretty sizable position bought approx at 88c and 97c. WEN- is thoroughly asleep @$4.00 >>>>>>> Is the market about to tun lower for the summer as it has done it seems since time immortal? Things don't feel good from where I sit. How many years I have been destroying my liver at Fire Island as the stocks dived day after day? Bringing my grandpa radio to the beach and turning it off unable to bare the bloomberg updates... Could it happen again? I'm booked for the first two weeks of August at the beach! All along I have felt a certain symbiosis with the market to both to my own health and to the BP well-- something has to give on both fronts. On the well I have suspected all along that BP would find a way to not kill the well and tell us they have to recover the oil for our own good. Which means pumping it and making money off it. This news of seepedge today seems the first step in that direction. On my health... I don't know, either we are all going to rally-- me, the well and the market... or we are all going to fall into a deep dark double dippy morass. I'm sorry this update feels like a gloom and doom report but honesty is the best policy. The only stocks that interest me today are HOGS CTFO YONG (all Chinese) MELA- They are FDA review very shortly somewhat of a long shot but a $2 plus move awaits if they get the green light. OVTI- always looks strong to me. APKT- ditto LF- probably bottomed. JAZZ- is a bio i don't follow normally but they have a FDA review shortly too I will do some DD on them. As you can tell I'm not that enthused as I look at things. In general that's where my head is at folks. Perhaps some of you have a sunnier view! I'd like to hear it. Or a name or two! Bring it on. ~stoney
US Geothermal Correction! I inverted some symbols confusing HTM with HDY an oil and gas play. Unfortunately HDY is at $1.00 and HTM is at 77 cents putting us at a loss not a gain.~si
Im really enjoying this thread, your commentary and ideas are quite interesting. The stock picks were very good, looks like APC should have been a buy. Keep it up, dont worry too much about your health, it just creates more stress and exacerbates existing problems.