Hi Stoney, your thread caught my eye as I'm looking to scale small into some longer term positions in our IRAs after being almost 100% in cash and only day trading and very short term swing trading the accounts. I picked up NLY not too long after their earnings miss and the "flash crash"; also a small bit of IRR, both for their high dividends, price stability and strong risk management. Today I contemplated buying VALE, but when the market's strength dwindled and sold off, leaving a very ugly daily chart behind, I decided to wait a bit. I've also been watching CF for weeks looking for signs of support. Do you have an opinion on that one?
For one very simple reason - what do you do once the technicals stop "verifying" the fundamentals? Sell out? If so then you will just catch chunks of a move, and also get stopped out repeatedly during pullbacks. If a stock goes from $10 to $50 you might make $5 on the move instead of $40.
The long run in investing is typically 2-3 years - that is how long studies have shown value stocks to take before returning to broadly fair value. If your life expectancy is less than 2-3 years then you should be spending your money not investing it!
The tech vs fundamental question is a doosey. It depends on market conditions. As I expect a run into end of qtr and see bottoming actions in the market as a whole and in transports banks and yes oil services- i am investing hard. My hold cycles are 3 to six months usually so it's all about getting the right price. Today we have the right price on WESTPORT. WPRT. I am buying. There is great support beneath this new era energy name. If you don't know about WPRT then you are behind the curve. They transition truck engines to run on nat gas. Earn are ramping nice even before the passage of any new energy/ gas act. I expect such a bill from congress in July. WPRT stands to gain mightily. I previously rode this name from $16 to $20... this time we take it to $25.~stoney
What up.... Rashid as to price on Westport; certain stocks you get to know by watching each and every day and WPRT is one of those for me along with what seems like 2000 others... Now when you get in at $16 and change and IT CLOSES THE WEEK AT $18... you can pretty well be sure you bought at the right price. Good job. We have a very good shot at $27 in a month. Folks LLEN is added to the Russel 3000! That can only be good! I agree VALE is the slowpoke only up a $1 but I've played Cliff's Resources whip saw enough times to know you grab a big chunk of the stable one when you get the right price. I think some back away of the proposed mining tax in Australia has swept some money towards the other plays, however when the dust settles Brazil is the country we want to be in and serving product into Canada the sure way to make $'s. NoDoj-CF I have used before but it's not top of my list now-- SPN @$20.00 probably is. Or CHL China Mobile. I'm about to do three hours of research on new names so perhaps something else will turn up. SI Portfolio ( Exclusive for Elite Trader ) VALE + $1 VIV + $2.60 ZIOP FLAT LLEN. + 79 Cents WPRT + $1.50 Not a bad start ey kiddies!!! I have a full list of ideas & rants and a small bio I snuck in at the close Thursday. More on the name in a little bit... Our new friend is SOMX. @ 4.80.~stoney
Buy ideas come from many different directions. In a disjointed market as we have now, chasing momentum if there is any, will not be rewarded. This is a time for deep thinking-- which stocks do you want a large position in? Which do you want a small play? Will tech still be in favor or not, etc. One fact remains-- there is an awful lot of M&A in bio land, more there than anywhere else presently and I'm just fine with that. Right now I have a bio ZIOP that I would like to sell!! and to that stable I add SOMX. SOMX could be an ideal Risk / vs Reward play. A young bio with an approved product and sadly no partner. A stk that was $8 and heading higher and which now languishes in the high $4's. How did SOMX come back on the radar? This little filing I re dug up from April- April 9, 2010 11:47 AM EDT In a 13G filing on Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: SOMX) today, mutual fund giant Putnam disclosed a 10.6%, or 2,753,916 share, stake in the company. The firm did not show a stake in SOMX at the quarter ended 12/31/09. Shares of Somaxon surged in March after the FDA approved the New Drug Application or Silenor for the treatment of insomnia characterized by difficulty with sleep maintenance. After the FDA news, Somaxon announced that it has priced an underwritten public offering of 6,000,000 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $8.25 per share. A portion of Putnam's new stake was likely bought in this offering. >>> Ok what do we know? (1) Putnam is pretty darn good on the health side, at least they used to be! And they paid in for a WHOLE BIG CHUNK AT $8.25 and they have not sold that I can find... so here comes Mr and or Mrs average American- will their investment adviser alert them to this fact??? probably not but I am-- follow the money here and if we get lucky its 100% in the BANK! And if this drags on and on.... with no partner... well we'll probably suffer through a round of financing and all that but in the end we have a fine product with no narco effects; a product that Dr's will want to give away as sample and a Price target of $10 from S&P. If you were a big pharma and you wanted a piece of the sleep disorder market, why wouldn't you just buy this co and save yourself development costs? Especially when it's sitting in the cheap seats? More on the drug itself later- it works - it's already through the FDA-- it's just a competitive as hell sector of bio... a little patience here might do us great in the long run. >>> There is yet another bio I'm looking at; a down in the dumps failed IPO with nothing but endless upgrades from it's many many underwriters coming. Hopefully by the end of this week I will feel comfortable enough with my research to formally recommend the name-- maybe one of you will guess it.~stoney