Welcome Back!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jun 9, 2010.

  1. Folks I mean no disrespect but Elite Trader which I just checked in on after a year's self imposed exile is boring as heck now. Of course the market itself has gone nowhere for years and is boring as heck, money mags are folding and ads are down, CNBC is struggling with the worst ratings ever; indeed the entire job of trading stocks is looked upon now as a scab on society. Practitioners of this evil art are no better than scoundrels and the every man who's stock holdings are tucked away for retirement gets burned time & again.

    Since I see a lot of new names here I will begin with some background of the stonedinvestor, I will tell the tale of exile and so far no redemption, I will outline a life lived on the edge, a dog that won't die and an private investor holding on for dear life. As we move on together I will leave stock buy after stock buy here for your perusal as I forge on in my ever quest to get back just to where I was a couple years ago...

    Back in the day I was flying high, my account had just tipped over the $1 million mark and I had just made a copy of that statement when the market imploded with the Lehman mess, etc. My trading account in a smaller fashion had charged ahead to almost $90,000, life was great the air smelled clean, I took on a 2nd mortgage for a country house- probably one of the last "look the other way" loans BAC gave out... With a million in the bank and four letter stocks moving what could go wrong? Surely I could afford an extra $3K a month...

    It was about this time that the tenant in a retail space I control with my brother and mother suddenly skipped town. Now as the markets went into free fall I no longer had any steady income to live on. I began to take bigger risks in the market in my trading account as I watched an account I am legally not allowed to touch for another ten years fall and fall and fall. Suffice is to say I am no longer a millionaire and my own inner promise to not return to ET until I had got back on my feet-- until my trading account had come way back... until my big account went back to $1 mil...well I break that oath today.

    My last words here at ET unfortunately were based on SQNM. I had allowed myself to get into a banter with a new poster who all dewy and fresh faced tried to shoot down one of my picks and what's worse suggest a few of his own. What followed was shame and tragedy for SQNM an thus for myself -- right in the middle of my life falling apart money wise --this trade went south in a big way. Rather than cut and run I found myself defending the pick here, buying more etc. Lesson learned, get your head straight before taking time to blog on stocks.

    Now at least that idea has come back from the dead and SQNM may or may not be a real company but the stk price has come way back from $3 to $6 and institutions are back looking at the name as the old charges of fraud are mostly blamed on one chick. At least I can say of all my great picks left here at ET over the years, my one bad egg did come back; I did wait for something to regain it's form before returning.

    In later followups we will thrash out what's happening with the market in a larger scale but for now we center our attention on buying VALE. Brazil is doing quite nicely thank you and China export strength plays into the VALE story. This is a LT hold so don't get crazy when it goes up a quick $7. A strike at their Canadian plant surely is holding back the stock that should be wrapped up by July.

    Even though my cost for VALE is $25.25 bought yesterday we will begin this name at ET @ $26 where it rests this morning after a UBS upgrade.

    A Chart I want to work to today is CHL China Mobile - looks like a two gap up reversal. And a Brazil phone play VIV: these two are the one's I am choosing between for more SA stocks in my big portfolio.

    Lastly SPN is an oil service name that is worth an investment they could benefit from a lot of the new regulations (as should Natl Oil Well) I've been waiting for some good news from that damn oil leak before making a move.

    Folks, this is an important day. Certainly the stock market is trying to stabilize at the sickening level of eleven years ago; Certainly I am older and more unhinged but I have also received my first check from a new tenant- we finally found one! I still have my weekend house and now I have returned to Elite Trader, indeed it's a momentous moment for us all!

    Welcome Back!~ stoney
  2. Big AAPL

    Big AAPL

    Stoney, I always look forward to your colorful commentary.

    Welcome back.
  3. Money aint everything...and more importantly - Did you burn one this am?:D
  4. Welcome back. Always enjoyed your posts.
  5. Thanks fellas, and yes what I do in that regard just to get the record straight is if I need a little jolt in the morning I quickly drink six cups of heavily sugared coffee and then just as a help to the household, I clean up of whatever the wife has left on the bureau from the night before and smoke that. I am always perfectly sober for all selling decisions- yet research and indeed some day trades can be a bit of a self party.

    As for Mr Market and the big question: the cyclical bull within the larger Bear scenario vs the 13% correction camp-- with all the noise in the news and this oil spill it's very hard to tell. I will note that the slope of the 200 day line which the markets broke was up. Not down. And remains up-- that places this pull back alongside numerous others we have seen such as 1989 & 1996. In both those cases the bull continued and after 9% and 13% corrections respectfully the market recorded gains of 10% and 34%.

    obviously the hope is that today's market is more like 1996 and a 30% run is ahead of us but the good news is generally when these steep corrections occur within a rising 200 day even breaking that averages and setting off those alarms and trip sales does not mean the end of the world. in fact you really have to look at year 2000 as the only time i can find where despite the rising 200 day the bottom fell out of the market for good.

    That's one small hope to hang our hats on. The other is that this gushing well gets closed off. No one seems to have noticed that the peak of the market was two days or so after the notification of the RIG explosion. How this relentless evil personification of man's folly and greed is really affecting the stock market is tough to tell. But markets are based on moods and the mood in America is not good- if we could fix this problem we could go a long way to bettering stock prices I am sure. ~stoney
  6. how much is left in the 1M account? why can't you touch for 10 years? why did not you hedge when you still could trade in it?
  7. Well shortie I do actively trade and the account is about $700,000 but I also had to pay all my taxes and bills out of it for a year. My set up is somewhat unique my father died when I was very young and he came from a pretty strict but rich Boston family he only had $200,000 to bestow upon my mother and myself (in 1966) the rest was tied up in a complex old school Boston " Generation Skipping Trust " As I've had it explained to me a few times and i still don't understand the idea is to force a few slackers to work and keep the family tree strong and then give all the money to some insolent grandson. As I kind of understand it the goal was to pay out eventually a trust to me! the slacker! After what should of been a normal lifespan to my father. Him dying so early on allowed them to structure this in such a way that I'm supposed to be the one being skipped! Something like that, I've got two cousins in this mess too... any way the funds are held with some old fashioned banking types and although they let me make suggestions on the buys and hold and I can rotate and this is an " income trust " so it's a lot of big stupid names and they don't want be calling to say get into a ultra short index fund.

    In terms of hedging I do have a third account with a small hedge fund-- just managed not in the fund. I keep a toe in there because my mother has dough parked there (she went on to make it big in Antiques) and the idea is if they bust their butts for me, I will eventually bring the what was a million over-- I have what's left of the original $200,000 left to me there and it's probably $350K to $400K at this moment... You can see it's more than $200K after all these years and that's after paying my way through college- so I've had my moments of investing success over the years. You are right though shortie I should of found a way to protect that account with a hedge of some sort; trouble with me I just don't like shorting stocks.

    Usually I rotate and rotate and buy my way out of these corrections, outside of year 2000 I have pulled this off numerous times... this past time of course it was different and I got caught hard in the downdraft. I was falling apart physically back pain, hair falling out... the world was ending... I think it was Iceland.... That's part of the anger and frustration here is the endless grasping for a reason for the sell off it's Hungry... HUNGRY!!!! I mean when are people going to realize the Euro zone is just France Germany and Italy you need only prop up three to save the Euro- they represent 70% of the output... But the Greeks are marching and so our tech stocks must go down.

    Ok Stock To Buy Today! ZIOP! This is an ASCO stock with a real nice product I'll go into a bit later. They sold off with the rest & management got a nasty email from me when they dropped a secondary, I have spared you all this pain and am giving you this name at my damn cost. ZIOPHARM under $5.~stoney

    ET Stonedinvesting Portfolio:


    VIV (temp want to rotate into CHL)

  8. ZIOP anounced today that it will present at the following investor conferences on Wednesday June 9, 2010:

    9th Annual Needham Healthcare ConferenceNew York, NY10:40 a.m. ET

    Jefferies 2010 Global Life Sciences ConferenceNew York, NY2:30 p.m. ET

    ZIOPHARM Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Lewis, MD, PhD will provide an overview of the Company's clinical development programs and most recent accomplishments.

    To access the live audio webcast, please visit the Investor Relations section of the Company's website at www.ziopharm.com. The webcast will be archived for ninety days.

    About ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc.:

    ZIOPHARM Oncology is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of a diverse portfolio of cancer drugs. The Company is currently focused on three clinical programs.

    Palifosfamide (ZymafosTM or ZIO-201) references a novel composition (tris formulation) that comprises the functional active metabolite of ifosfamide, a standard of care for treating sarcoma, lymphoma, testicular, and other cancers. Palifosfamide delivers only the cancer fighting component of ifosfamide. It is expected to overcome the resistance seen with ifosfamide and cyclophosphamide, two of the most commonly used DNA-alkylating drugs used to treat cancers. Palifosfamide does not have the toxic metabolites of ifosfamide that cause the debilitating side effects of “fuzzy brain” (encephalopathy) and severe bladder inflammation. It may also have other advantages. Intravenous palifosfamide is currently in a randomized Phase II trial to treat unresectable or metastatic soft tissue sarcoma in the front- and second-line setting with the Company having reported interim positive results in late 2009; a registration trial in the same setting is expected to initiate following U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review in the first half of this year. An oral form of palifosfamide has been developed preclinically to the investigational new drug application stage.

    >>>> I'll leave a link with the CEO on bloomberg here when I can refind it in my system the basic idea of the investment today is I know biotech and I believe in this Palifosfamide. Whether that's enough for you all is up to you I would note those two presentations today and if the damn market would just hold up we ought to get upgrades tomorrow.

    >>>> If any of you have access to Needham notes today. They said some stuff about the recent presentation at ASCO I would love for you to drop it on this thread.

    Some basic arguments for the name. The structure of phase 111 may be slanted for best outcome. They have already crushed investors with an ill timed secondary 15% beneath the stock price! You can take that either way-- desperate act or they had a backdoor promise to Fidelity and the stk was running away... i'm in the latter camp. Co can now deal from strength for a parntnership and go after more cancers
    such as pediatric cancers and small cell lung cancer.

    -Palifosfamide could be priced less than generic!

    -They are trying to be "as strategic as possible," retaining rights as much as possible for palifosfamide.
  9. Ok it's almost 12;30 and sometimes I like to go have a drink at mid day.

    Lets remember that coal is being used more than ever yet the supplies are down. In China they are really shoveling the stuff. How would you like to play the Chinese coal market but thru a US entity with clean books?

    You can LLEN You want to be in this name. They even have some clean coal angles but who cares about that for China. This is a unique name in the space and some big money I know are hyped on it for the China rebound. Buy now @ $ 8.60. ~stoney


  10. stoned..

    Granted you are a Buffet style fundamental investor. Why not get your fundamental homework done, then wait till the technicals verify? I am not suggesting pin-point price picking but definitely to avoid a full bore weekly price decline. As you know the difference between a Bull and Bear is the difference between what the market is willing to pay for fundamentals..

    At the end of the day the price could care less what the fundamentals say, to varying degrees, unfair but it is what it is.
    #10     Jun 9, 2010