A very interesting and trying day to say the least. After shorting gold futures two days earlier I woke up to find that gold had gapped higher and Iwas a little more underwater than I wanted to be. I was ready to take the stop but felt the first half hour will tell me if it is going to be a gap and go or a gap and crap. I used a DeMark TDCombo 13 as the entry signal, along with the bars on the chart going straight up which doesn't last forever. At least the crap happened and I enjoyed watching gold move further down during the day. I am still short gold. Another thing that fell all day was the overall market. Down, down down it went. I was very surprised to see the S&P 500 fall as much as it did. I stayed away from it, but the night before I bought DNDN and I covered it in premarket trading for a decent gain before I was even out of bed. I like those kind of trades....LOL I reentered and traded DNDN a few times before exiting for the last time. I will be watching for another entry as it appears to be oversold. Lastly, I entered into a long with PCS by selling naked put options with a strike of $9 in various accounts. I like PCS here for a bounce in the next few days. I am watching ALK for a dead cat bounce, as it made a TDsetup 9 yesterday after a crushing drop in the last week.
Does anybody know where i can find the Demark indicators coded for Ninjatrader? TD-Sequential and TD-Combo. TIA
Options expiration day provided at least one opportunity, and price action in general was good. About three hours into the open I sold C 33 puts that were expiring on Friday. They were paying about 44 cents each while C was trading around 33.25. I looked at the volume and open interest, and I figured that if it did go below 33 I was facing at most (absent something really earth moving) having the stock put to me at around 32.50ish. Sure enough, not long after I sold the puts, C started to fall and went down into the 32 range. At that point the IV was so high and nothing was worth any real news so I sold some $30 puts expiring next week that were paying way more than they should be. I guess when people panic they know how to really panic. While I wanted to, I did not add to the 33's due to the possibility that the whole market could really take a dive. If it did I wanted to have plenty of buying power to start entering orders with. It didn't take long and C was right back but gave me a little bit of a ride (I did not have a big position on). They are now done and expired and I will still be facing next Friday unless I cover with the $30 puts. I think I will be ok if I end up getting C put to me for $29 and change so I am not worried about it. I like C and I really like C under $30. The PCS puts I wrote the day before traded lower for most of the day and ended up lower. I intend to hold a while longer and see how that goes. I am expecting a fairly decent week next week so hopefully I will be able to just watch the time run out and they will be OTM expiration Friday. I can't lie, I am not liking my gold short. Especially after the downgrade by the US even though I don't think the downgrade matters. Of course liking a trade doesn't change much in terms of if I will make money or not. Many of my trades I don't like and they do great. Gold has been up 124 months in a row according to kitco's Frank Holmes. It also has been up so much recently that it triggered a TDCombo 13 on the daily chart. This is about as strong as a sell signal as I have seen with it in a long time. I will be looking for it to correct to under $1550, and I will review it again for direction. One could say that it's a bull until it's not, and that after 120 months it had a lot of juice left in it. That is all true, but the last time it gave a sell 13 signal it gave a strong pull back and unless it can break to a new high again, I will look for the correction. My short is a synthetic naked call. Each day I collect from the time decay. I am currently reading Quantum Trading by Fabio Oreste and looking at other ways of reviewing DeMark indicators such as DeMark Prime and Thomson with the DeMark add on.
Glad to see you update here. I'm taking a break from my futures daytrading to take care of my Dad, but am getting a seperate equities account open for some swing equity and option trading. I'm looking at Optionhouse, or IB, although my past experiences with IB are not the most favorable. I'm a Tradestation person from back when it was Omega Research. I have to say I hope you are only using them for research or they have greatly improved their brokerage side. They were horrible for reliability when I used them as a back up account when they went to the brokerage side of business. There platform had quite a few issues with backtesting also, but I hope these have long since been fixed. Anyway good to see you posting here, and I guess if I'm back to the dark side of equities and the tax issues they present as opposed to futures I should maybe drop in on your chat room.
This has been bothering me since I wrote it. It didn't seem to add up from what I remembered and so i went back and took another look. here is the link and the sentence. "Gold has now increased for 124 months straight, says Deutsche Bank." http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/holmes_aug032011.html I am only looking at the GLD chart and going off my memory but I am going to say that is flat out wrong. I remember the first push back from $1K and before that at $600 when I last bought. Regardless, I believe gold is extended and due to pull back.
here's the monthly GLD with some demark indicators for ya bob.. looks like we're still a month away from a TD9.. <img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/gld_monthly.png">
I don't but I would believe that it could be coded, especially if one had the code for TS to look at.
Thanks, I apprciate you putting up the chart. Take a look at the dialy. We have a completed TDCombo 13 last week. We also have it totally blown out of the water (along with some of my capital before I stopped out) As I write this I am short gold futs based on a 13 with the 2 min and 10 min chart. shorted at 1769.50 and bidding 1763.20 to cover. its currently at 1765.4, wish me luck...
What a great day. It could have been better and it started out on a sour note but ended wonderfully. Yesterday, I opened a new Gold short based on a TDCombo sell signal. It very quickly went against me and even as I entered it I was questioning the price (just under 1800 for the Dec contract). Normally I would like to short an item above a key number not right below but I was somewhat caught in either making the trade or not making it at all. The market was about to close for it's standard 45 minutes between 4 and 5 pm and so I put the trade on shortly before the darkness. I came back a short time before the opening at 5pm and the GLD stock was trading lower so it appeared all was right in the world. As soon as the futures opened up the GLD spiked higher and we were not in the 1800 plus range. Right where I did not want to be. It moved higher and I faded the move to bring my average above 1800 thinking that on the next retracement to 1800 (yes I know it could have simply gone to 1900 without looking back but the spoos were trading higher in AH so I calculated my odds as being very good) I could either cover or take some off and reshort higher. I ended up taking some off and leaving some on with the thought that after the run up it had a long way to go down. I have recently been doing well with gold (after a rough start) and knew that the odds favored a lower day today. After several hours of watching it bounce around and hold 1800 I decided to take a dollar or two in gains and call it a night. Knowing that if I held I would be up at least once or more to check the price action. That can make for a very long next day. Sure enough, I had to kinda laugh when I checked gold prices this morning. Down and down big. I didn't know it at the time but between taking the trade off and waking up the CME raised the margin requirements which likely was the catalyst for the drop. So I did ok with my gold trade and I received a full nights sleep which lately is about 6 hours. The real big winner of a day maker was when Nic in the chat room called out SODA was in play. I made several trades with it and then made a major move that I have not done in years. I waited until several signals came together and indicated that SODA was way way way oversold and then in three trades I went all in. As in I pushed all my chips in to the middle and said "I call". The next part was the most crazy for me. Normally I would scalp as the stock moved around and now that the trade is over I wonder if that would have been a better move. I really believe in scaling in and out of trades. Predicting exact price points is generally a fools errand for the most part based on my experience. What made this one different was I fully believed that instead of going for the typical 50-60 cents that I target with my long fades is that I was now going to target $2.00 a share. This was a monster leap in expectations that could easily left me wondering what the hell I was thinking. In fact I almost did just that. it was nerve racking to say the least, as the price more than once reached and then fell below my standard profit target and then moved below my cost basis. I got up and removed myself from my desk and started doing exercise to avoid the monitors. That didn't really help much, but I did get some exercise which I very much need. I didn't quite make it to $2.00 (and actually my offer was for more than $2) but I ended up lowering it to 44.48 after seeing huge amounts of selling coming in at the 44.50 price level. It took a while to eat my offer and move past it. So I was out with about $1.85 per share gain high fiving myself for sticking with the plan and using my experience to greatly increase my gains. I will again be watching SODA in the next couple of days for a long entry like I did with PCS. PCS after falling big time last week saw the option premium spike and I waited until two days after the drop (what I consider the sweet spot in catching falling knifes) to sell some puts. I sold the $9 front month puts for about 40 cents and with any luck they expire worthless next week.
Today was not met with much for trading. ZAGG and gold futures provided the only items I wanted to trade. The spoos had me tempted, but with being told that SPY was on the threshold list and the extremely obvious line of resistance I didn't trade it. What I found somewhat interesting, is that the resistance held. I have found tht when its too obvious, the stops get gunned and usually quite effectively. I am unsure what was different today. Perhaps it was due to being a Friday and too many market participants had already left, or perhaps from the lack of desire to become long this market, the spoos could not break through, much less break and hold. I don't mind missing out from trading the spoos, as it often appears that it is on crack or a trader needs to be on crack to deal with it. With as much money is on the line it is not surprising that it acts the way it does. Gold treated me well providing most of the gains today. I spent much of the day working on research and signals as I shift from making as many trades as possible, to making as few as possible. So far the shift has been slow but steady. Have a great weekend, and if you are interested in investing in your retirement account, I am working on electric utilities article that should be out Monday or Tuesday. I am reviewing 12-14 dividend paying companies.