Weinstein Trading and Fading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Robert Weinstein, May 5, 2008.

  1. Today started out a little shaky with a raised price target for VRUS but that appeared to be more of a sell side promotion than a real opinion that VRUS is going higher.

    VRUS gapped higher at the open and quickly found the way back down. By the end of the day VRUS gave back most of the gains and closed much lower than the open and near the low of the day. Fortunately largely as a part of the high implied volatility premium I was a seller of puts yesterday to hedge against the calls that I wrote. The puts largely mitigated the increase in value of the calls. Starting next week the time decay will become noticeable as it accelerates with 16 trading days left before expiration.

    I had a few trades today including RHT, YOKU, and EBIX. I shorted YOKU calls today expecting that at a minimum the price will not be able to move higher faster than the time decay and with all the Chinese headline risk lately it would appear more likely when than if YOKU gets attention due to its current PnL. I am currently small with my synthetic short but plan on adding next week.

    EBIX gave a William long signal at 21.18 which was pretty impressive considering the low of the day was 21.08. I was actually already trading back and forth along as a result of the price action and stayed small until the price approached the William signal at which point I added considerable size.

    RHT gave a Brenton short signal and I faded the gap but kept the size small but also made most of the target other than the last unit which I was looking for an outsized gain but had to settle for less when the price moved back higher. As it turned out I did about as good as I was going to do.
    EBIX +523
    RHT + 283
    Today + 807
     
    #2141     Mar 24, 2011
  2. Today was by far the busiest day of the week as far as trading goes.

    I had many VRUS options with both put and calls expiring today. VRUS overall was a losing trade but I am unsure as to the amount. I will have to reconcile the reports after the month is over. Fortunately these type of trades don’t happen very often. I thought about rolling over into May contracts but ultimately decided against it, with the thought that I would re-examine it next week. Interestingly enough I did not trade it today.

    I did trade one stock extensively today, AGO Stock, April 17, and 18 strike price calls. This may have been my best trade of the week as it has been one of the slowest weeks in perhaps over a year. AGO kept me busy the entire afternoon but it was well worth it.

    I also shorted SLGN just a small 200 shares with about half an hour left to go in the day. I covered 100 shares right after the closing bell in after-hours with a modest gain per share.

    COCO continues to be under pressure along with the other for-profit educations. What I find fascinating about this particular educational stock is that the price does not seem to reflect a buyout possibility. I believe this is a mistake to shareholders that are letting their shares go away to cheaply. I will be looking to add to my position by writing May or June puts with a $4 strike price. I will also be looking to add to my HPQ position.

    Today the other thing that kept me busy is my latest stock article about the record volume in options trading for March. I plan on working on it and finishing it up tomorrow. I will also be working on the website this weekend. I have been working on the website all week and while I have spent many hours on it no visual progress can be seen. In fact I believe the website was working better last week before I started. Classic example of taking one step back in an attempt to take two steps forward.
     
    #2142     Apr 15, 2011
  3. A pretty light day today. Traded SINA to the short side. I sold some out of the money calls and

    I also sold some out of the money puts as a hedge due to the high premium that was being offered. The net effect of selling covered shorts is the same as selling naked calls. SINA will most likely be a hold for the next few days to week. In the near term I expect SINA to retest the $125-130 price level and longer term to test $110-115 level. there is not pushing it besides shorts getting squeezed and retails thinking this is worth more than it is because of reported gains in their “Chinese Twitter” service.

    HPQ which I have a small long with my retirement account is struggling to stay above 40 the strike price of the puts. Enough time has passed that at least the puts are still almost break even. I may look to roll them over to June or July if HPQ just sits here at $40 for any length of time.

    COCO is also having a tough time lately. selling $4 and $5 puts and getting exercised on only some while then selling the calls has worked so far. One would expect COCO to stay over $4 or there may be more serious trouble ahead. For the last six months it has been a nice consistent producer of option premium. I expect to write some $4 puts by the end of the week if the price stays at this level.

    The website continues to make progress and some new features should be rolling out by the start of next month
     
    #2143     Apr 19, 2011
  4. A very busy and very good day today. after the downgrade by Goldman Sachs with SINA the stock fell out of bed.



    I covered some of the short and I am holding about half through the weekend as I switched from covered short stock to using naked calls as a synthetic short.with the premium as high as it is and a three-day weekend I would rather have naked calls then stocks short. I had a few other trades today and although not as big as SINA it made for a good day.

    I had an overnight with CSR that has a buyout offer for $6.50.

    BIIB was a gap up Brenton

    CSR tip

    CY Laurel overbought on 10 minute chart

    QPSA Laurel overbought on 10 minute chart, interactive brokers ran out of shares so I cut it off early

    UTEK William signal

    IGT after hours laurel overbought based on round number

    PLCM after-hours lauryl overbought
     
    #2144     Apr 21, 2011
  5. I bought SINA MAY put 150 when it hits 147+. overbought.first time to trade option in my roth-IRA,still holding. a test. have no idea about:

    buy to open
    buy to close
    sell to open
    sell to close.

    just felt oversold. shorted 146/147,covered 141. then shorted pre-market 138/137 yesterday, covered it at 131.3 in my production account

    SINA is an overbought. watch out double top. most times, a stock runs up too quick,it will fall quick. I do not do fading. I used overbougt indicators








     
    #2145     Apr 22, 2011
  6. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    I think Robert needs to connect with you immediately and whatever your price, he needs to get hold of your indicators.

    On an intraday level this week, SINA became fully overbought on Monday @ 124.00. It remained fully overbought all the way into the close @ 135.00. On Tuesday it opened fully overbought @ 137.50, and remained fully overbought through the initial push to 143.30.

    On a daily chart over the past month, SINA became fully overbought on 3/25 around 104.00, remained fully overbought through 4/5 trading above 116.00, then pulled back a bit in a range, never even dipping down to the 60% overbought level. It then became fully overbought again on 4/18 to close @ 135.00.

    Yet somehow, you amazingly bought puts when price when price traded above 147.00. It is truly astounding that you have the Holy Grail of overbought indicators that doesn't kick in until the EXACT high.

    Name your price, I'm willing to pay for it, because all this price action crap I've been doing requires way too much focus day in and day out, when I could be picking exact tops using your indicators!

    198, you make very occasional live trading calls on ET and they turn out to be big losers. Then you make these amazing after-the-fact calls where you've picked exact tops and bottoms.

    Robert, sorry to poop here on your thread, but I smelled bullsh*t :D
     
    #2146     Apr 22, 2011
  7. GG1972

    GG1972

    Why even bother replying to anyone who's been on for less than a year on ET-heck even people who ve been on for more than 5 years have lost credibility. Couldve just quoted and said BS- we d have understood it perfectly :D :D :D
     
    #2147     Apr 22, 2011
  8. Hey NoDoji,

    I can say that I have the whole chatroom as witnesses that I wrote my article on SIRI the day before it crashed.....LOL

    Whats my system worth?? Gotta be more then two veggie burgers and a beer...

    Hope you find all your eggs

    Robert




     
    #2148     Apr 23, 2011
  9. 0.5 point loss with 3 lots?

    1.5k is a big loss, what a laugh. that is a very good swing trade.

    0.5point loss correspond to my overnight swing trading rule, technically it do break down after I was stopped out, that means I did the right sell.

    the market is at the consolidation zone, it looks it will go up, finally will break up from thezone, and I am bullish. actually after I entered, it gave me a couple of hundreds, but I ignored, that is not what I want or my plan allowed, ifI risk 1.5k, just get a couple of hundreds, in the long run, I will lose, in my mind I must get 1points at least, then think about booking profit.

    in reality, that day morning, in the dip I bought it again, in the bounce I bought more based on my directional indicators. I made 10folds of my loss. I think those are correct trades.

    to me, a right correct trade is not measured by loss, but by my trading plan or rules. if I plan to risk 1.5k, I lost 3k, then it is not a correct trade. but I made two times of my risk or lost the risk, I consider it a qualified trade. if I made more than 2.5 times of my risk, I considered myself did a good job.

    you are just a day trader, I know. you cannot get richer if you do that day in and day out. trading is not a regular job. otherwise the potential of befinits of earning enomous money vanish.



     
    #2149     Apr 23, 2011
  10. Lol@"just a daytrader". I hope english isn't your first language because I couldn't understand anything you said. NoDoji is right about SINA. I'd love to buy your indicators too! They must be amazing.
     
    #2150     Apr 23, 2011