HEADS UP ON MY USER ID. I may be joining a firm shortly and one of the conditions is that I no longer write in my blog, here, seeking alpha, or anywhere else for that matter. (compliance issues, so they don't get sued) I can continue to write my thoughts but will have to do it without using my real name. I will most likely be asking for a username change shortly if I join and will most likely start a new thread as well. Those that have been following my thread will probably have no trouble figuriing it out but thought I would at least let everyone know I have not fallen off the edge of the earth. Have a great weekend RW
Hi BK, Thank you. Yes, I guess I will just log in under a new name. Nothing for sure yet as I have not pulled the trigger. Very close though. I am planning on going to NYC in Feb during the expo and thought I would check out a few firms when I am there. I may just wait until then to do anything more. Also I just found out today (I think the news is from today) that my articles on seeking alpha can now be monetized so I need to consider if any changes there (changing my name ) may lower my page views / followers. Based on my page views(wow a lot more than I thought ) of my articles I should be getting some worthwhile checks if things remain the same or I am able to maybe write more of my ideas. I can say for sure that I have no plans on getting rid of the chat and in fact if given the choice it would be a very easy one for me to turn down going prop. I receive way to many ideas and alerts that I profit from to make up for the commission difference. Have a great weekend and what are we going to do all day tomorrow without any trading??? Best RW
A great day and a new 13 month account high water mark for me I went to the cub scout meeting for my sons tonight so I did not have a chance to write my results earlier and as late as it is and with still more work to do this will be fast. After accounting for withdraws of my trading account I reached a new high that tops all of 2010. Next goal will to top my high water mark in 2009. I have a ways to go to reach that but I am confident at my current pace I will be able to reach that this year. I currently have a bull option spread on AAPL. I figured two things with AAPL. One that if the afternoon was higher AAPL would be able to reach new highs and two with the timing of Jobs leaving for a while that the numbers would blow the top off the lid. I was correct on both accounts but the price of AAPL retraced quite a bit from the highs that happen to be my target (I bought the 355/360 spread). Here is my article that was published after the market closed which was quicker than most of the time time it takes Seeking alpha to review, edit and publish but longer than I was hoping for. http://seekingalpha.com/article/247157-could-apple-offer-a-buying-dip-this-week I donââ¬â¢t have the actual numbers but I did close out my weekend carryover with NANO today as it retraced fully into the start of the short signal. I also traded and did very well with a short with NAK. NAK gave me a little heat to start out with but came back so nicely that it really was an oversized gain. I look forward to options opening up tomorrow and seeing if I actually made a gain with AAPL even though being right may not be enough. I am also waiting in the weeds to short BKS. It has a massive short interest but I think a lot will have to happen for it to be able to maintain its dividend as well as post a profit.
I can see why there's huge short interest. That's one fundamentally unsound company :eek: Congrats, Bob, on your profitability!
Day one of Chinaâs General Secretary Hu Jintao state visit to the United states today. Listening as painfully dry and frustrating as it was at times it really gave me the impression that we are playing Chinese checkers when we should be playing poker. I studied Asian history, Lived in Japan, been to most of the major Chinese cities, and have done business for years with Chinese companies (both state owned and private) before turning my attention to the markets full time. What so many doesnât understand is that China has an axe to grind (and maybe rightfully so) for all the transgressions that have happened by so many western countries. Granted England ranks most likely on the top of the list but United States doesnât have clean hands either. At one time China was the greatest country in terms of total GDP and if including India the GDP comprised of over half the total worlds GDP. Moving forward after more than one war was fought to maintain the sale of drugs (think Opium / British East India Company in the mid 1800s). This along with civil wars, Japanese invasion in the 1930s that didnât end until the end of world war II and we have a China that went from a position of high status to a country that has been beaten up and seriously embarrassed. For a culture that prides itself like most with a feeling of self respect (think saving face) it is understandable that they want to move along and take what they feel is their rightful place as the number one world economy and power. I feel that anything that gets in the way of that goal is going to be very quickly dismissed as getting in the way of the end game and not worthy of consideration. This is what so many business leaders in the west including political leaders in Washington fail to understand. A prime example is when Microsoft said they would be proactive in disabling counterfeit software products and the response from China was that they would boycott and attempt to punish the audacity of Microsoft for actually wanting to protect their intellectual property from outright wide scale theft. I feel this was a mistake on as large of scale as possible. What was missed is that China is working hard to find a replacement for the Microsoft product and replace it with a Chinese product to sell within China and undoubtedly to the world as well. Better to make a stand while you are in a position of power and influence than to try to appease a thief to not steal from you any more. As we heard many times today China continuously uses the term ârespectâ and yet laughs in our face as they show us none. At least no more than absolutely necessary in keeping the United States from giving China a major and real backlash. Walking the streets in Shanghai one can find stores that sell DVDs in major malls and shops and the majority of the product that is available that I witnessed was counterfeit. I found it very difficult to impossible to find anything that was genuine. How many jobs / export money is lost due to the sales that are lost from Hollywood losing what appears to be most of the Chinese market from competitors that simply steal the product and resell it? I am pretty sure that California could use the extra revenue. It goes on and on in ways that many may not understand. Rolex is another easy one to understand but how about fake drugs, fake aerospace products, fake musical instruments (I have been to a factory in China that produces Fender guitars and Fender does NOT have a factory in China), fake jeans, T-shits, and just about every other value added product made in the US. I have talked to Chinese businesses that actually do not want to sell US products because the counterfeit problem is so bad that they can not compete against it and the customers do not believe the good are the real thing. How bad is that? Products that are not sold because no one believes they are real???? I use Shanghai as my example because this is the same city that China uses as their example of how they are making progress in stopping illegal goods from being sold. Yes in all fairness their have been limited examples of people being arrested and sentenced to prison but I equate that to using a table spoon to drain a bathtub. I could make points about how the Chinese manipulate the Yuan against the dollar to keep it artificially low but I think that is not a problem. I know many will disagree but in my opinion a strong dollar raises the standard of living for the U.S. Also and very important I feel is that in order to maintain the current exchange rate China is buying our debt allowing us to keep the housing market from totally imploding along with perhaps the rest of the economy (one may be able to argue that the economy would be doing better in the long run otherwise and I would agree I do not care for the debt level we find the U.S. at). Lastly a lot of time is spent with the human rights issues. Lets face it, China gives little importance to human rights. But as I suggested this is because that perceived rightly or wrongly to be getting in the way of the end game of being seated at the head of the table. I also feel that the human rights / censorship hurts China more than it hurts us. China will loosen up censorship and at some point tear down the âGreat Firewall of Chinaâ but not one minute before they want to. We can talk until we are blue in the face and they will simply nod, be polite, and tell us they will work harder in the future towards it. Like it or not that is the end of that story. What should the United States do then? Are we helpless to get anything done? No but we must act like we actually are in control of our own fate. I would suggest a 5-15% across the board increase in import duties (we actually allow many products in with ZERO import duty from China and as a former importer I know from experience). Yes China could file complaints to the WTO. China could also restrict imports of our products but we import more than they do so they have more to lose. In the end a trade war has proven more than once to only leave a wake of losers and no winners long term and it is that thinking and game theory that China is betting on to continue what they are doing. But this view while maybe correct in the short term and on a total GDP persepective right now fails to calculate what an absence of action will do. The United States was once faced with a export restriction of VHS cases for movies over an issue back in the 1990s. Hollywood cried and we were left without another source for the low cost product. Now we face possible short term shortages on rare earth products / metals. What will it be next week / month / year? What happens when the dependence shifts from China needing the United States more to one where the United States needs China more? You can count on China nodding a little bit less and offering a little bit less and demanding a lot more. Things like Taiwan are in the sights and within a few years at our current trend we will not have a say because we will be to vulnerable to a reaction by China if we do anything more than lip service (We may already be there now). We need to put business leaders of the caliber of Donald Trump, Jack Welch and others who are willing to take on some short term pain to get a brighter tomorrow. I highly doubt President Obama will do anything at this time that could possibly upset the apple cart and risk his chances for re-election. The Chinese know this and will play that to their advantage. The United States must stop thinking in terms of today and start looking at tomorrow and beyond. Perhaps a good start is to understand what the Chinese are doing, how they are doing it, and why. A good place to start for our leaders would be a reading of the famous Sun Tsu âThe Art of Warâ.
I have been buying FFIV in after hours trading. It appears to me that a bottom level support has been put in and I feel that this sell off is way overdone relative to the earnings that came out today. For a company that appears to be gaining market share from giants like CSCO and still on a path of growth it sure was beat up. I wrote an article about it on SA and hopefully it will be published tomorrow highlighting my reasons for my thoughts on why it was oversold. I thought I would add my trade here as I am not busy trading it and it will be something to watch tomorrow to see how it pans out.
FFIV was running up on raised guidance in the past. This time, they didn't raise guidance and when that happens the high P/E ratio of these high flyers loses its attractiveness and the institutional investors tend to bail on their positions, selling every rally. "The results were uncharacteristically in line for a company that typically beats and raises," RBC's Mark Sue said. Fundamentally, lowered guidance makes everyone head for the exits out of fear that everyone's heading for the exits. There will be retraces but they will likely be sold. I say this because when I first started trading, I sold some puts on parabolic high flyers that sold off hard on lowered guidance (ISRG and LNN). I took very quick profits on the bounce, which was a good thing, because both of them continued much lower. Technically, the break through $112 was a key level breach. The previous resistance levels that will be tested and should hold as support for a bounce are $105, $104, $98, and $93. Then again we're in a serious bull market and FFIV may be like NFLX and end up making all new highs
Hello NoDoji, and run for the exits they did last night. "sell sell sell, sell it all" could be heard loud and clear. I just stood by the door and offered to take away their fear for a small fee : o ) closed it out and looking to reenter today if it crashes again. I think the daily low was put in after hours last night. Saw the same with CREE and so many others Best RW
LMAO! You are the cowboy trader and I'm one of the lemmings running off the cliff, ha ha! Now I know who's down there causing trouble when I sell a low tick