Weinstein Trading and Fading

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Robert Weinstein, May 5, 2008.

  1. Robert, if a company can't get its drug approved, its the same as a company saying that its going to file for bankruptcy. Now, if its a large company like PFE with multiple drugs, then yes, there should be some support for the price.

    If you read something like this before trading the stock, you should assume your technical signals will not work especially since everyone is getting hit by margin calls and stops are getting attacked.

    They took my shares of BBEP today as my covered calls got exercised. I guess they did make a profit in the morning since it did hit $ 15.25/sh before falling back to $ 15.00/sh. I did not buy the stock back since I want to see what happens to the market for the next day or so to determine if we are now going down hard since if so, stocks will be cheaper going forward. Good luck in your trading.

     
    #1891     Jun 22, 2010
  2. Just a couple of names today

    Even so it was a little bit crazy with BP and RIG after the court ruling that placed an injunction on the federal government six month ban on drilling. I did not see an edge so I just sat on my hands and watched. I came close to fading the BP move higher as I didn’t think the ruling warranted the one dollar move but it has been beaten up so bad lately that any good news could send it $2 or more higher so I was just happy that my puts written would be further out of the money.
    AFFY which I felt was way oversold today just could not get anything gong beyond the opening. I will be looking to add again as the price multiple to cash/assets along with the real possibility that their drug coming out of Phase III trials (but not meeting secondary endpoints) could get at least limited approval from the FDA for part of the market. Once it lost the ability to make any real gains I needed to cut and run and look for another entry.
    AFFY + 393

    BVF was my first B8 in a while and I made a few bucks with it and scalped some as well. I am holding over some looking for a retracement in the open.
    BVF + 384

    I shorted a few shares of VRX in after hours trading. The stock closed at 50.94 and shortly after the close all the offers were removed and the lowest offer was 55+. I put an offer of 200 shares at 51.66 thinking that if anyone really wanted out they would be paying for it but they could get out and I should be able to cover in premarket or open tomorrow with a gain. As of this post I had 40 shares lifted so I guess when after hours trading is over I will see how that goes and if I get any shorter with this…..

    + 777
     
    #1892     Jun 22, 2010
  3. BP about even for the day. A little bit down but even the puts fall in price as it appears that we are hitting bottom for the price.
    BP was hit with more bad news when a robot caused the top hat to be removed. Even so the price of the stock was largely unchanged while being higher for much of the day. I sold some OCT 15 BP puts. I understand anything is possible but I am unaware of anything less another disaster with another well, ship etc… that could even possibly cause the price to get into that area. There are probably things that I don’t know about as well but I like my risk vs. reward on this stock insurance bet.

    I traded some AAPL via options but just could not get anything going and kept getting stopped out or closing out when back to near even.

    My carry over with BVF worked out well and turned into the best trade of the day.

    AAPL JUL 280P + 29
    AAPL JUL 290P + 41
    BP + 40
    BVF + 593
    LTBR + 22
    VRX + 24

    + 752
     
    #1893     Jun 23, 2010
  4. I am moving where I live and my office so I will not be making any posts for a few days.
     
    #1894     Jun 26, 2010
  5. Didn't you just move into a big new house? You aren't planning on living in your office are you? Hopefully this is not a domestic dispute or financially related but either way good luck. You seem like a stand-up guy and honest to a fault in my opinion so I hope things work out for the best for you.
     
    #1895     Jun 26, 2010
  6. I bought the house that I just moved into about a month ago. We needed to find tenants for our old house and then give notice to the tenants to the new house.

    So this reply is coming from my new home office.

    So far so good
     
    #1896     Jul 5, 2010
  7. Bob
    After a period of time (i don't remember period) your old residence will no longer be tax free when you go to sell (assuming there is a profit) but will be taxed as cap. gains
    because of its changed status.

    cheers
    john
     
    #1897     Jul 6, 2010
  8. Bob,

    good to hear that all is well and you are back up and running. cheers.
     
    #1898     Jul 6, 2010
  9. I believe the time period is three years. but then you can always do a "starker"(SP?) 1031 exchange (as long as the rules have not changed since I last looked.

    I hope that this house is with me when I die and that I can pick up 2 or 3 rentals a year. Great tax write off and it appears to be tailor made for traders as a retirement program
     
    #1899     Jul 7, 2010
  10. Your correct about the exchange, but if its a rental ,you must exchange to a like property.
    ..
    My rental properties for years have been a solid rock in my retirement. I never thought they would.
    GOOD LUCK.
    cheers
    john
    .
     
    #1900     Jul 7, 2010