Good job Robert. What people don't seem to understand is that what Robert does makes logical sense. Lets say I am an investor and owned NUVA waiting and hoping for good news. Good news comes out, and the stock spikes over $ 10/sh with my cost basis at $ 30/sh. I would at least sell some of my profits on that spike even if I felt more good news was coming. Robert gets a technical signal to take the trade and short the spike. He then manages the trade correctly and gets out with a profit. I expect from back testing, this type of trade may have at least a 65% probability of success. The only thing needed, is to be able to take a psychologically take a loss when the trade does not work out, and the stock keeps going up. Why would the stock keep going up? The reason is if the news is a game changer. For example, BIDU kept going up since GOOG was basically saying it was getting out of their market. So the news created a tidal wave trend not just a spike. Also, you do have shorts fighting by averaging losers into this tidal wave instead of being able to recognize the difference. So even if one does not have the ability to recognize the difference, having a stop and honoring it, can provide the money management to succeed and prevent wipe out as the tidal wave hits you.
Thats where I covered my longo 41.85 but should've traded it better didnt take it on ride down to 37ish believe. Much respect -takes brass balls step in front of that freight train lol.
Hi Xspurt, right you are. We all are playing a "risky game" and I agree I am too. "Good chance for a gap up and run continuation." well I guess I can't argue with that either. I develop my signals based on the statistical odds from back testing. Either they meet the criteria or they don't. The crazy thing about that gap up B8 is that I lowered the requirements in the factoring the gap up due to my belief that I have done too much curve fitting to the point of losing out on a lot of good and statistically sound trades. There are a lot of variables and that is one of many and this one actually made it to the penny. One penny less and I would have entered in over a dollar higher later in the day and it would have been a gain. The most important point is that it was a signal, I took it and I stuck to my rules. Even so as a fade it was not that bad especially considering I took stop losses for risk management that ended up changing it from a gain to a loss as well. Best to you Robert
Hi GG, If there is one thing I know is that my ability to read a chart is poor at best. This is why I am only now taking trades based on signals and never trying to "figure it out" by looking at a chart. So thank you for posting the charts but to even try to gather an opinion is counter to what I been working to do. I am happy to say that this week was about trading my plan and next week I expect to even do better. thanks GG and have a good weekend Robert
Hi CGR, Thanks and as it turns out you are correct about DLTR Not much else to say besides it had a bad result Best Robert
Hi Deadwood, Good advice. I have two news feeds. I actually normally don't get a lot of value out of them. I think from my understanding is that you need to have bloomberg for news and stare at it all day long waiting with your finger on the button or your gonna be late. What news service do you use? Robert
Hi 21, DLTR was a bitch but actually it was a signal and they don't all work out so "oh well" it was a small loss and I am willing to take small losses when the payouts are almost as good and the hit rate is off the charts. I also agree that when it looks the most scary and everything inside you says do not short is when it is getting very good to short Best to you Robert
While driving today I heard on CNBC that the VIX is pretty low. I would like to see the market move higher for a while. Robert
Hi Nod, Strange that they halt on the second release. I am guessing the first reaction was much greater than they thought. I think halting stocks is a total waste of time and money. Other than protecting the insiders who are pulling the strings I don't think it would be done. Perhaps it makes some feel better. anyways its just dumb remember last year when i had two or three get halted on me in 08 or 09 in one month? that was crazy. Best Robert