Hello Trading, Yes In most I agree. In fact that is why I did exit and did not hold out until Monday. I had a valid signal and I went large with it and granted I did not exit at the point I should have (and not happy with myself about that) I did exit after the signal was proven wrong. This trade did not work out but I still look at it and feel that the odds where in my favor and when that is the case I think its ok to push it. Better to push hard when you have the advantage but of course that does not mean its going to be a winner as this shows. Have a great end of the year and thanks for taking the time to post. Respectfully, Robert
Yeah and thats to bad. Neke I feel is a great trader and knows how to make bold moves. We all predict the odds not the future (at least thats how I try to make it ) I don't worry about Neke as a drawdown here and there is going to happen to everyone. Happy Holidays Robert
Hi Jack and same to you. I hope next year is your best yet!!! My drawdowns are the visual and public part of my trading but its the entries that usually get me in the problem area and having the ability to take a stop loss that is small is required 100% of the time not 99% as I have shown. This is for sure the most front thing in my mind with trading. Happy Holidays Robert
Hello Vhehn, I agree. I think the hair that was once on my head and is now in my bathroom sink agrees also. I can say that I have improved in this area but I am not there yet. Its a demon that I fight with a lot. I have trades that work great as fades and those that should be stopped out quickly when wrong. my biggest problem has been mixing the two (thinking the fading will work on a non fade trade) Based on the criteria SNDK never became overbought intraday. As such there was no intraday reason to believe that it would retrace. My WRONG conviction was that with that many days up and that big of a percentage in the last three weeks the odds favor a retrace of at least one day. I suspect that when it does it will be more than one day and it will close near the low of the day its down. obviously I was wrong about WHICH day and maybe just wrong about this in general with SNDK. Hopefully I will start Monday as a better trader due to this experience. I have been very optimistic about trading lately as some new signals are really working out well. (other than the short I did late today with SNDK it never actually gave me a short signal) So in the end SNDK has once again allowed me to know that I suck as a discretionary trader. When I stick with the plan (which I have in writing ) I do great and when I move away from that I do poorly. Of course that needs to be balanced with the fact that all my signals where at one time discretionary that became written rules. Maybe next time I see this I will be able to take it long and make some nice gains. This is what I did with gap ups at the beginning of the year. I was getting killed but was able to take all that was learned and build a solid gap up trade signal that produces very nice gains with very little fading or pain. Have a great weekend and happy holidays to you and yours Robert
Hello X, Thanks for taking the time to post. I believe you are SOOOO right. I took a look at the weekly today (something I should have done two days ago but I don't normally look at weekly charts when the MAs are moving higher) Once I looked at it I said "this damm thing isn't oversold at all". To say I felt stupid at that moment would be an understatement and I started to really look for the exits. As bad as this trade was it could have been worse because I started to cover pretty aggressively before it broke 30 (still way to late I know) It was also after looking at the weekly chart that I didn't add any more to the short until after I had a valid short signal. I have once again added long trades after a long time of avoided them. About two or three weeks ago I started regularly trading to the long side and I do hope that I can capture some of the trades on both sides. So far they have worked out well but I have taken it pretty slow. Being short is a lot less risky in my opinion and especially so with overnight holdings. ( i lived and watched the trading in 1987 and 1989 and 2001 and all the mini ones in between) Thanks again and the very best to you in closing out your year and I wish you a great 2010!! Robert
Hello Retail, Thanks for your post. I can't any thing you said is wrong but I will say that there was a bigger mistake with SNDK that I made. I should NEVER had been in the trade to begin with. Was not a written down signal with rules. I allowed myself a discretionary trade and then allowed it to be a fade when it never signaled that it was overbought intraday. I knew better then to be in it and yet I did short it. Those slow non stop moving stocks can go on forever it seems and I totally forgot that I can't just trade a stock because I "think" it looks like it will turn around. I would be willing to short SNDK again in a heartbeat if it gives me a short signal but until then I think I will be done with it regardless of the month we are in. Best to you and yours and I hope 2010 proves to be your best year yet Respectfully, Robert
Bob Great journal as many has mentioned before and hope i can contribute. Drilling down into industries will show that SNDK has been in one of the hottest industries for the past year. Semiconductor memory chips. Notice one day(12/24)...+3.5% 1 week...............+16.4% 1 month.............37.4% 3 months...........32.% 6 months.............+87% and 1 year.......a wopping 196% SNDK is outperforming it 's industry by about 100%. There must be easier shorts out there DeMark's method will not work without the vigorous use of filters The site below has been a great aid in my years of trading and may be of some help as a filter http://finviz.com/[/url] cheers john
This was the best advice by far given to you that I've read amongst those who posted recently here. Perhaps there is a reason why it is the only one you did not reply to directly.
I agree with you, illiquid. Deadwood and yourself are very different from 95%+ of the traders here. You guys are at the level where I wanted to be. PA