Weekly tread: July 27 - August 1

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, Jul 27, 2003.

  1. rezo_s


    First of all, selling season of euro is over at the moment, and I may consider buying depending on what will be the opening action. As we saw, the bottom was seen just as I said, and euro didn’t come back to recent lows – just headed to 1.1550, closing near week highs. Surprisingly, the resistance area around 1.1490-1.1510 was taken out on Friday – can we trust the Friday closing above 1.15? Whets next? Well, I think I will act according to market behavior. If from now on we see good and confident up move, I would say the upside trend is back and we are heading at least to 1.17-1.18 and maybe all the way to recent highs. But I think there still will be little consolidation in first days of the week. At the moment the assumption is to go long on euro, but it still depends on market behavior in first trading sessions. Maybe first Asian will be enough. So, lets wait for the opening and discuss it afterwards.
    Pretty similar situation may be said now about many currency pairs, but I will go one by one.
    Very typical behavior for cable. Week opening with such aggressive sell off, it regained not only the losses for this week, but also all the losses of the past one. Even though the move was very strong and convincing, it doesn’t look that good for me. The potential for up move seems to be stronger on euro rather than on cable. I need to see the performance on this one as well in order to consider buying the pair.
    USDJPY Still in its range of 117.5-119.50. Waiting for more serious action to begin here. For now its same as it has been for couple months now – flat.

    USDCHF Most confident move amongst majors is seen here. After the failure to break the key area level (1.3850-1.39) we got bearish candles both on weekly and daily charts, after which the move down began. May be a very good sell here, and I will consider it as sell from the beginning of the week. Initial target will be 1.3150.
    But first lets see the break of 1.3450 if it turns out to be broken indeed – its good sing.

    AUDUSD Buying of aussie resumed and it went all the way to above 6650. It really didn’t have the potential to reach my target when I was short, and good thing I didn’t reenter the short. At the moment the move upside is still questionable. I will need to see the action here as well. At the moment it looks neither sell, nor buy.
    USDCADExactly the same situation as on aussie. Despite the strong sell off, I cannot say it was very convincing for me to trade.
    EURGBP I held a sell order on this one for 3 last days of the week, but it didn’t get filled. So it was removed on Friday. The potential here is not completely lost, but at the moment I see suggested correction, or at least consolidation. I may still consider buying, but first lets see whether there will be deeper correction.
    EURJPY Lots of action here. Very nice and strong move. May consider buy during the week. No defined level or time for entry yet though. The only thing to say – the closest support area to be secured is 135.90-136.20. This area was taken out during last week and at the moment this is the level to watch.
    EURCHFAt the moment the sell signal is gone. Short position was stopped with ~70 pip loss. Nothing interesting here right now.
    GBPCHFShort position was closed at b/e, but it still looks like possible sell, so will reconsider after market opening. At the moment 2.1800 area seems like good resistance and may be the sell area as well. Will see.
    GBPJPYMixed picture here. I can say nothing constructive. Need to wait and see the continuation.

    So here are currency pairs I will be concentrating on at the beginning of the week. During the week, the view can change and other pairs may get in the picture as possible trades. As usual, I will be updating and in case there will be something I am watching close – I will post. Ok, here they are:

    Eurusd - long position in case the pair will not give up much of its gains. Possible initial target – 1.17. Estimated stop 50-80 pips
    Usdchf – short. Level to watch is 1.3450. Initial target is somewhere between 1.3150-1.3050. Stop 50-90 pips
    Eurgbp – long. First lets watch the consolidation (if at all). Afterwards long is possible. Same targets as last week, but the stop is very small here because of very little recent volatility – 30 pips. Its not usual for me to use such stop, but any bigger move may be interpreted as beginning of the move in that way.
    Eurjpy Buy may occur anytime, even on Monday. Initial tgt – 139.10. Stop – 60-90 pps
    Gbpchf Sell here is still very possible, targeting 2.1250 area. Stop is also little due to same little volatility – 50-80pips. Sell may occur anytime during the week (at the beginning as well).
  2. rezo_s


    Hi, everyone. The market is pretty quiet, and no serious signals are seen out there. No pair gave expected picture on charts, so for now I'm sidelined. Seems like this week is going to be "no trading week" for me.
  3. Couldn't agree more.