Weekly Thread: Sep. 28 - Oct.03

Discussion in 'Forex Trading' started by rezo_s, Sep 27, 2003.

  1. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    Hello Everyone, hope everyone is enjoying the weekend, here are weekly commentary, thoughts and strategy for coming days.

    Holding the short from Sep.24: eurgbp @6930 with stop at entry level and tp @0.6770.

    EURUSD: Very quiet market we got last week compared to recent aggressive weeks, but its not surprising - market need to rest as well. Little confusing situation on single currency. Trend is defiantly upside, but all upside moves towards 1.1520/40 area were taken by market participants as good sell opportunities. Main question is: what's next? Will we continue the upside rally, will we be stuck in same tight range, or is it reversal? Well, last week mentioned the "shooting star" candle on daily chart (Tuesday), and that it could bring at least consolidation if not correction, and maybe eventually reversal. But it didn't happen. Next candle was not even close to being bearish, but still it was in range of previous day. On Thursday we got another bearish candle - same "shooting star" (read about Shooting Star ). In my opinion, this combined with market overbought situation should bring at least correction. I still prefer standing aside and waiting for at least another day-two to see where is it going to. If market will ignore second shooting star, and break through 1.1520/40 area with day closing above, I think we are defiantly going at least to retest recent 1.19 area. So, to sum up on this pair, I suggest waiting for at least another day-two and see where market is willing to move. If we are going down, its all the way to 1.1220/50, and if its upside - its 1.19.


    GBPUSD: Cable is showing much more confidence for upside move than single currency. That's what we got recently and this tendency is likely to continue. Cable certainly is to be bought, and long positions on the pair is considered to be taken in the beginning of the week. The Head and Shoulders formation is still threatening for possible forming of strongest reversal pattern on weekly charts, but the trend seems to be very strong and the market so definite about the upside move that no one is giving this pattern any significance. At least till now there was no cautions behavior on side of market at left shoulder area (1.6480 - 1.6550). We got 3 days in raw day closings above those levels. Therefore at the moment I am confident market to ignore this possible h&s formation on weekly charts and we are most probably going to retest 1.68 area again. But still because of this h&s formation, once I get to take a long position I will be moving stop to entry level on little (20-30pips) move in my favor.

    Rest pairs will come later today and tomorrow before market will open.
     
  2. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    USDJPY: The neck line on weekly chart was broken 2 weeks ago, and its no wonder we are heading down. In my opinion we are going to hit 109 at least after this break. Unfortunatly after the break of 115, I didnt get to enter the market - it was moving too fast and too agressive. I almost never jump into fast market, so I was just watching it all happening. Now we are in little consolidation, and I may consider selling in the begining of the week. Keep yourself updated - I will post as usual once I enter. Target would be around 109 - 109.50
    USDCHF: Surprising or not, but swissy as well as cable and jpy is looking more confident vs USD. Seems like there still is some space downside. There is a support of 1.3450 before we can go to 1.3350 area (61.8 fibo area). Short position is a good option here, targeting at least 1.3350, but I prefer selling above 1.35 - dont know exactly at what level - maybe above 1.35 and maybe not. Keep yourself updated during the week.
     
  3. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    AUDUSD: We can absorve here the shooting stars just as on eurusd daily chart, but unlike on euro, candle seems to start doing its job. Except for that, same candle is on weekly chart, which rarely gives false signals. No trades considered here, because recent trend was definatly upside, and it was pretty a rally. Aussie reached its highs - just as expected, once greenback resumed its downtrend over the market, aussie was the first to benefit (well, except for yen), so now I think we may get a little more stalling, maybe even correction - candles are pretty serious, especially taken those are backed up with weekly one. I think we should watch the gap area around 6720/30 - little support should be provided there. If that support is lost, we may bet as low as 6600/20. For now I do not recommend getting into this pair - better to wait and see how serious correction may get.
     
  4. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    EURGBP : I am holding short @6930, it was as low as 6905 on friday, and stop was moved to entry level. Afterwards it almost got closed, but missed couple pips. Still holding, and working the triangle on daily charts. In case we break downside, my target of 6770 shouldnt be a problem. Nothing else to add, look at the picture to see the triangle.
    EURJPY: Maybe, just maybe a sell this week - for now no view.

    USDCAD: Flat for now, maybe slight upside move may follow - little mixed picture, so I prefer standing aside.


    Ok, that is about it for the pre-opening comments this week, lets hope we all have profitable week.

    Regards,
    Rezo Shmertz
     
  5. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    Well, as I said, expected correction on euro is in place (now @1.1415). Now we watch how serious this move is. Lets see today's closing first. The gap area is also important to be watched. If gap is filled, 1.1220/50 become very feasible targets.
    However, I am still looking to buy cable, but I am watching it today. It depends how cable behaves today (cable now @16505).
    Anyhow, here is a list of markets I am looking at currently:
    eurgbp - holding short
    usdjpy, eurjpy and eurchf to short
    gbpusd still to long

    Good Luck everyone,

    Rezo
     
  6. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    eurgbo short position closed at entry level
     
  7. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    Looking to take short usdyen, and maybe long gbpusd as well. Euro crosses are good to sell as well, but no entry on any apir generated yet, so lets wait.
     
  8. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    sold usdchf @1.3192
     
  9. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    stop@1.3342 (150 pips)
    target @1.2870 (322 pips)

    stop to b/e at 1.3155
     
  10. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    Performance stats updated now including September data.
     
    #10     Oct 1, 2003