Weekly Thread: Sep. 14 - 19

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, Sep 14, 2003.

  1. rezo_s


    9/7/2003 6:02:08 PM

    Hello everyone, hope your weekend is good.
    I am holding 4 positions (all secured - stops at entry points):
    short usdchf @1.3875 tp@1.3660,
    long eurusd @1.1189, tp@1.1370,
    long eurgbp @0.7019, tp@0.7185
    long gbpusd @1.5817, tp@1.6080

    For now I see good move on side of these positions, and I see only possibility those trades to go even further than defined targets, but that's future possibility and I am going to take profits where initially defined (if prices get there - cable was 10 pips away from defined target on Friday, so I think it will not be a problem). As I said, the move may extend further, but I will be exiting on tp, and prefer reentering even if it will be much higher than where I closed. Now little bit on each pair

    EURUSD: Euro extended its gains and eventually broke the downside channel just as I thought and posted a week ago in similar opening post. I was talking about 1.1220 as first level, and we were there already on Tuesday, eventually breaking that level as well on Friday. Fundamental effect may not be denied, but in such cases I see it as "technically move confirmed and market awaiting for reason". Who can guarantee upside move wouldn't occur if numbers were just as expected and the downmove we saw prior to the bounce was not do to that expectation? Well, actually I don't care, as I am technical trader, and was going according to my trading style. As far as I see this move, it may be heading to retest of recent top of 1.19+ , but lets not run in front of the market, and let that be only an assumption. To sum up, I think we still have potential to go much higher on this one, and lets not forget that market can stay in overbought zones for quiet some time...

    GBPUSD: Well I said that cable didn't make it to 1.6040, and it would in near future, and 1.6040 is what we got. I took long just as planned in the beginning of last week, and I posted earlier what I think about this trade - I'm looking to exit when/if my target gets hit. At the moment it looks promising even more than euro in terms of going higher. But we have a very clear possibility to form h%s on weekly chart, so lets keep that in mind for the future (not relevant on this trade, but may be very relevant for the next one).

    USDJPY: Was holding long (around116.70) there as planned in the beginning of last week, but the moves were very sluggish and I preferred taking different position, so closed it for no loss. We are way too long in this peaceful trading market, but we see its generally market against Japanese interventions, and that neck line on weekly chart of h&s pattern is still being protected. Once we break there - no intervention will help the seloff. We say this pair being completely independent to other usd crosses, so no matter which way market goes, we may get a major break sooner or later. As for now, it looks like going little higher for now, but I have no interest in it for now, as am looking for minor crosses for this week.

    USDCHF: As always, same here as on euro, but this week we got major buying of eurchf which resulted in euro outperforming swissy in its gains against USd, but position is open, and target defined and I think 1.3660 may be seen soon.
    EURGBP: long is held here as well, and maybe we go for the target, and maybe not - it all depends how the pair will perform this week. But stop is at breakeven, so let it run for now and lets seek for further opportunities.
    I mentioned last week US/Canadian becoming good sell and that I would wait another week, so the move is confirmed and I will be looking to sell the pair anytime this week.
    Another pair to look at is of course EURCHF : and if I get to long it @some good level, is would be good. I think we may be going to retest high of May 2000 for the start - around mid 1.57s.
    EURJPY: is also looking like heading to at least 134, maybe higher, but at the moment I'm not considering long here - maybe later.

    That's it for now, wish profitable week to come for all of us,

    Rezo Shmertz

    Best Wishes,

    Rezo Shmertz.
  2. shorted eur/chf @ 1.5553 on Fri
  3. rezo_s


    sorry to see thst...
  4. stopped out at 1.5582 took the trade because i didnt want to chase last weeks winners and it was suggested by newswire on demo lol
  5. sold eur/usd at 13.01 newswire on demo says fibo retracement to 1.1210 beckons
  6. rezo_s


    Possible next trade:
    long usdjpy for 118.50
  7. rezo_s


    Its a shame eurgbp was closed, but after 30pip move in my favor on friday (equivalent of more than 50pip move on eurusd), I had s/l @entry point which was trigered shortly after the market opening, now its@7050s.
    Ok, euro is trading above 1.13, cable went all the way to 1.6079 - 6 pips more and my t.p would be triggered. Now its at 1.6030s. In this case I am still holding the position, but tp will be rised a little bit to 1.6110 because next move should go little higher. On euro I leave tp same for now. No changes on USDCHF trade as well.
    Also may look to sell USDCAD in case it rises a bit to get better price.
    Market seems to be reestablishing shorts on US dollar, and today's market behaviour suggests there are no serious sellers on side of euro or gbp holders...

    Good luck everyone,

    Rezo Shmertz.
  8. rezo_s


    Ok, moving stop loss on gbpusd to 1.5917 to lock 100pips. I am currently holding three positions against USD, and all are locked for breakeven or profit, so I'm going to add the following positions today (its not final yet, but looks like good possibility):
    long eurgbp for 0.7185
    long usdjpy for 118.50
    short usdcad for 1.3470

    Good luck!
  9. rezo_s


    Swissy closed at breakeven, will be reselling this one again later instead of buying eurgbp.
  10. rezo_s


    sold usdcad@1.3690
    #10     Sep 16, 2003