Rezo greetings, I,ve been following your weekly threads with interest and have found them quite informative for one who has only recently migrated from index trading to the FX market. However, purely from an objective point of view I must say I've found your approach this week to be absolutely scarry. If you don't mind me saying ...you're doing the exact opposite of what you believe and expound. You say that you wouldn't fade the trend (100% agreement with Baggerlord's comment earlier on in this thread) and that's what you proceeded to do, not once ( which is an OK mistake I suppose), but twice and looked as though you'd have had a third go as well except that your six years of trading experience subconsciously pulled you up...and made you say that you'll have to take time out and have a bit of a think. Self preservation at work. Your honest and admirable commentary on your trading has revealed, this week, a very intrigueing problem many of us traders suffer from ( and I am at the front of this sort of thing...I know), and that is that every now and again we go right of the rails and transgress all our well honed and understood trading rules. This is a self sabotaging manouvre for which, I'm sure the psycho people will have some good explanation . But it's not often that this deadly trap has been so clearly displayed as in your trading diary for this week dear Rezo. I hope you take this comment in the same philosophic spirit in which you write your very own advisory thread.
Hello old dog. Tell you the truth you're not exactly right, cos my trading is combined with 2 techniques - positional and swing trading. Swing trading is of different types: breakout, breakdown or a channel trade... these trades (eur and swissy) were swing trades based on chancel pattern that can be observed on daily charts of these who currencies. I don't know how well are you familiar with my trading, but if you take a look at my trading (you can find it on web page@ marketac.com), you'll see that sometimes I get to "chase" the currency using the swing trading. Time I took to think was to explore and understand where did I go wrong. Swing pattern was confirmed by reversal warning signals, and there was no oposition on side of longer term analysis that upside move inside the chancel is going to happen. That was in brief the thinking behind those trades. I never become emotional about trading and try to keep it that way...I hope that explains the thinking behind those trades. As for now, there are more chances I become bullish on usd and that wont be a swing trades anymore, but positional ones. As for fading the trend - that's 100% right, but trend was showing signs of loosing momentum, and I was following on these trades mainly the chancel pattern, but because of the trend I use to move stop to break even very fast in such situations. Unfortunately the downside pressure turned out to be very strong and I didn't get to "secure the trades for b/e"...As I already said it once today - I take losses just as I take profits - Part Of This Job. Actually I was very strictly following my rules, and after I got stopped for the first time, I took a look at those once again (I know the rules by heart - and even if some1 wakes me up in the middle of the night I will tell him, but I tend to look at it especially in such moments in order to control myself better) and found that still the signals were in place and I had to reenter...maybe the only thing I should have done is reenter only one of those trades and not both...but no...I think its not the case...BUT I'm still working on it Not to worry friend, even when I get one single stop I still tend to seek for mistake I may have done..so I am always open for criticism. After some time you find it hard to improve your trading even though you try to find mistakes, but it helps you keep yourself in "shape". And then thanx to posts like yours you may suddenly understand something you would never notice/think about alone...thats why any kind of criticism is always weclome. Thank you, Rezo.
Well, I see neither short nor long are to be considered at the moment (euro), but it still depends on how will the action be from now on and till the end of the day. Maybe we are bottoming out, and maybe not. No new trades except for the current short on yen. I will post closer to asian session... Good Luck everyone , Rezo.
System gave buy signal EUR/USD @ 1.0805 and sell signal @ 1.0865........Please give critique of such a trade...give details if you would of opinion of that type of trade....too short?....System performed well, poorly, etc... Thank You
Hi Porgie. Unfortunately I can say nothing here as I am not day trader and don't care that much of intraday volatility. Picture is mixed and its hard to determine next serious move. Recent seloff was very heavy and even just a memory of it is enough to push down another 100 pps ...on the other hand there are signs of bottoming...its not clear yet, but is a possibility. I was thinking of turning bullish on usd, but now I prefer to wait until the picture becomes clearer. Sorry again, but I cannot help you with intraday analysis especially in such mixed picture. Best of Luck, Rezo.
Hi I would have thought the bias has been down, at least on the medium term. The last move was followed by a retracemtent to the 31.2% fib line (near enough), which suggest strength in the downside. Longer term view is downward, with 0550 the target---- retracement level of last major bull wave.
Hi Ryan. Well I wouldnt be so sure about it. I prefer watching a little more. No trades at the moment. In case we start moving upside, I would say we may target 1.1080 - 1.11. Take a look at the attachment. btw, USDJPY closed at b/e. GL.
Hi Rezo Hmmmm, great post...... hadn't seen that!!! I did notice that the dailies and 6 hourlies were very oversold and that a correction was in order, but hadnt seen it in those terms.....thanks for that. Ryan
Thats why we are here for - maybe someone sees thing you missed. I also ofter see posts talking about something I missed and its very useful sometimes. But upside move is not definate yet. I was targeting that channel this week, as upside move began on friday and got enough signals form my system to trade, but now I need more confirmations to go long. Maybe tomorrow. Will see - no rush. cheers