Weekly Thread: Sep. 1 - 5

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, Aug 31, 2003.

  1. rezo_s


    Here's my view and expected trading strategy for coming day(s)
    as for Sunday, before market opening.

    EURUSD: Single currency is beginning to show sings of reversal. At the moment its
    still early to talk about buying, but its high time to say stop selling (for me, at least). Monday
    EOD charts situation will tell me 1 of 2 most possible scenarios (most possible, as there are
    more than 2). More likely Monday trading day will give me indication to build long position.
    Target is going to be somewhere around that late exit of triangle (1.1220 area - based on
    potential indicated last week range trading).
    This scenario looks promising, as objective is currently more than 200 pips away and
    due to recent little volatility (range of 1.08-1.09) estimated stop is around 50-60 pips (may
    increase or decrease after Monday EOD data). I need to see Monday closing in order do decide,
    and hopefully there will be chance for nice entry afterwards before projected move will start.
    Although this first case of building long position is a good option, it doesn't mean second
    scenario has less chance to happen. This would be case in which current upside move is
    only a corrective move before further decline of single currency. Once again, Monday will
    be a confirmation day for building long position, and a "stand aside" day in case there will be
    downside move. Friday could be just a false upside move due to short positions covering, so
    lets not jump into conclusions because of what happened on Friday.
    I will not be talking about how low are we going to go in case we resume moving down,
    but there is a chance to get more momentum once seloff continues - maybe 1.0550...

    So the strategy is as follows: waiting for Monday EOD, and make decision either to
    go long or to wait for further developments.

    GBPUSD: Unlike euro, cable shows enough potential to take a long position
    right from the beginning of the week. I will wait for another move towards low 1.57s
    to enter long. Ideal stop indicating this perception to be wrong is around 1.5670 area, and
    taking in account target for this trade: 1.6040, even if entry will be around last week closing
    level, it will still be good risk reward trade.

    Strategy: no orders yet - wait for week opening, and go long once entry confirmed (maybe
    Europe session). Even though most chanced this trade will take place, I don't suggest putting order yet.
    In case everything looks good, I will post if I put order.

    USDJPY: very nice downside pressure on usd was seen late week. Objective of 116.80
    I was targeting on my short (which I exited earlier to that move) from last week was reached and
    we even saw as low as 116.20. Well, now I would say its perfect time to seek reestablishing
    that short position, and even though intervention fears are still present, I will use trailing stop
    (manually and often moving stop) in order to minimize loss in case of sudden intervention and
    to protect profits. Target is 115.35.
    Strategy: same as on cable - wait for good entry level, and if correction looks good, going short.

    USDCHF: Same strategy as on euro, but instead of up it will move down, and v.versa.
    Initial target here in case down move confirmed is 1 3760, but entry doesn't seem to be close
    to current levels...Wait for Monday close.

    No signals worth attention are provided on Aussie and Canadian at the moment. Same for rest
    crosses. Maybe the picture will change during the week. In that case I will post if any trade looks
    attractive to me.

    That's it for now,
    Have a Very Profitable week,

    Rezo Shmertz.
  2. RyanG


    Hi Rezo

    Tend to agree that the EUR tending to look more bullish, and a corrective bounce looks likely. Daily studies suggest oversold conditions.

  3. rezo_s


    Agree, Ryan.
  4. rezo_s


    took long on cable

  5. rezo_s


    stop@1.5655 ( 80 pips or 3.2%)

    target 1.5940 (+212 pips or 8.48%)
  6. rezo_s


    Little mistake: its not 80 pips, its 73 pips stop...

    Just as planed - I'm going to take a long position on euro.
  7. RyanG


    Hi Rezo

    Was looking to do the same. If prices confirm a failure at 0930, then looking for a long to test 1015

  8. Just took a peek at this thread, my positions are the exact oposite. I went short Eur/Usd because it looks like a pullback starting to turn. This is my 2nd week trading forex though. Mind pointing out to me why you feel it is starting to move up? Also got out of a short in the USD/CHF because it looks like it is resuming its upmove.
  9. RyanG



    Long on the EURO........It is very oversold on the daily chart, and has also become oversold on the 1H chart. If 0930 holds (Which was previously strong resistance--now support) then upward movement is a possibility, however I guess if 0930 breaks then a resumption of the downtrend could occur.

  10. What broker are you guys using to trade currency?

    #10     Sep 2, 2003