Weekly Thread: Oct. 19 - 24

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, Oct 19, 2003.

  1. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    Sunday, October 19, 2003

    Hello everyone, hope you are all having a great weekend!
    Here's what I think on market after Firday closing and before the opening...


    EURUSD:
    This is the first week since beginning of September (when we reversed @ high 1.07s) when we didn't see new highs. At the moment I have doubts whether we even get to retest 1.19 highs, because the move seems to be running out of steam. But we still may see another try to go higher. Lets take a look at daily charts. Last time when we corrected, it was to 1.1530 level, and we bounced from there on till this week when we went on FRIDAY as low as 1.1545 and bounce once again. Well, from the first sight - trend up is still in place - we got higher highs (after correction to 1.1530 we got +1.18) and higher lows (on the second correction we got 1.1545). I stressed the word Friday in the last sentence because Friday trading has some differences compared to rest of the week, and therefore what we see on Friday should be taken with skepticism. We were on seloff from the beginning of the week, and those who took short positions during the week were closing the shorts. No one wishes to hold shorts when we had such a strong upside move of 1000 pips from beginning of September. There were several more reasons to that Friday upside move, but that is not as important. The more important question is: what next?
    Well, I don't know what you think, but I will try to sell first thing on market opening; maybe even during the first Asian session, maybe little later during the day. There still is a chance we try to break up, and if we look at the chart, we see the possibility for right shoulder on h&s pattern. Will it happen? We will just have to wait and see. Anyways, if selling, I will have to move stops promptly because another attempt to break upside may not be ruled our yet.
    If we break upside, I will be considering to buy later during the week. No signals for buying at the moment.
     
  2. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    Here's the chart of EURUSD
     
  3. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    USDJPY:
    Well, if we take a look at chart, we see this was the first week we were correcting. Not that much of correction, but still. On Friday we got the closing of all longs, and the black candle on the charts.
    NO doubt that we have a very strong down trend in place here, and in order to take long, I prefer wait to see the inability to go lower, i.e. see another move towards 108.50 and bounce back. If we see that, I think it will be good to take long for initial target of 112.30 (gap area). Enough room to go up if confirmed, so lets take it easy.
     
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  4. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    GBPUSD:
    Mixed picture at the moment. No definite direction signals here. Sidelined for now.

    USDCHF:
    Well, very bearish candle on the daily charts, but still - its Friday candle. If it is approved (which should happen first thing in the beginning of the week), we may go back to retry break down. We can observe almost same picture here as on euro with possible third attempt to go down, but on this currency pair we saw higher correction than the first time. So actually the sentiment for USD to weaken here is weaker, but still there. I prefer taking long position, but I prefer doing it after we go lower and see the inability of bears to push the market to new (lower) levels. We have got channels both on euro and this pair (60 min charts), so there is possibility we bounce back upside here around 1.3250 level.
     
  5. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    EURGBP :
    False break upside of the triangle, and coming back into triangle. Now I think we are going to try break it downside with initial target of 6860 and 6760/80 as next level to target. 6885 - 6905 should provide a strong support, but once we break it, we should see nice and steady downside move.
     
  6. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    EURJPY: We had a very poor trading on this pair last week, and I think we should break any direction soon. Any direction is possible here, but I am looking to sell at the moment targeting 125.50 as initial target. Very sensitive situation in terms of direction here, but still see possibility for 125.50.
     
  7. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    AUDUSD:
    Very bullish sentiment here, but I think we need to see some correction here. Nothing interesting at the moment for me.


    USDCAD:
    My short position @1.3330 (from last week Thursday) was closed at 1.3270 in the begining of the week to book 60 pips, so I am out of this trade, and now it seems like to be a sell once again. I will be looking at this pair for possibility to sell for 1.28 target.


    That is it, will update during the week,


    Rezo Shmertz
     
  8. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    sold

    eurusd@1.1662

    eurgbp@6951
     
  9. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    eurusd:

    stop @1.1760
    target 1.1445

    eurgbp:

    stop@7005

    target 6760
     
  10. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    stop moved to entry level on eur/$
     
    #10     Oct 20, 2003