Weekly Thread: Oct. 12 - 17

Discussion in 'Forex Trading' started by rezo_s, Oct 12, 2003.

  1. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    EURUSD:
    Weekly closing around 1.1800 (week opened around 1.1580, so we still advanced more than 200 pips this week). We have an up going channel for very long time now, and as we saw - each time the price got to its bottom (both sell offs on Friday a week ago and this Thursday) - the market used it to reestablish new long positions. Test of recent +1.19 highs seems to be inevitable now, when we are so close to that high. And at least a test is what we most probably will get. I cannot talk much about possibilities of break higher to new highs, because there is always a doubt, but retest seems to be very possible. On the once hand, market is very overdone with this aggressive rally since we bounced off the 1.0770 level on Sep.02, but on the other hand, there is no limit to how far the market can go. We all know that market can be in overbought/sold status for quiet long time before correcting. At the moment one thing is for sure: till we are inside that channel, we are going up, but once we break it - we may get REALLY serious sell off. At the moment, recent highs of +1.19 are easily achievable through the channel, and that's another reason for me to think we are going to at least retest those levels once again.
    Sentiment is pretty obvious out there, and I think no one has doubts about where the market was and is going since Sep.02. How far will this go? We'll have to wait and see, because noon really knows...
    On the chart you can observe that there are some serious levels on the way down as supports:
    1.1650 - 1.1700
    1.1480 - 1.1550
    At the moment I think we are not going to go below 1.15, but we may get there if we break the channel. In my opinion, a break of 1.15 would mean more than correction on the way down.

    I will post more commentary on rest currency pairs in coming hours...
    Hope you're all having a great weekend :)
     
  2. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    EURGBP: Broke the triangle, I posted on thursday that I wanted to enter long position when it came back, but didnt ge to. Well, at least the bullish sentiment on this pair seems to be proven with this behaviour. Will see, maybe I still get to enter long here for 7180-7220 target.
     
  3. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    EURJPY: Interesting situation developing here. For last 2 weeks I posted that this pair may be a sell, but not one of those two weeks confirmed the downside move or potential for such move. But now, I see some signs - enough to go short, and therefore this is one of pairs I will be looking to sell right at the week opening. Maybe even shourtly after the market opening. The initial target that seems to be reasonable and achievable is 125.50. Will look at the situation as market opens, because I still need a little confirmation at the opening.
     
  4. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    USDJPY: Huge seloff here, and no end is seen to it yet. I think next target is somewhere around 106.00/50. All possible levels are broken, despite many talking about correction. If we take a look at the chart, we see that there was (almost) not a single day of real correction after we broke the 116 neck line. The sad thing is that I've been waiting for a break of that line almost since the begining of this year, but I didnt get to benefit from this rapid seloff. I do not like entering agressive moves, and that is the reason for that. Another reason isthe interventions which were mixing both the market and the technical picture all the time causing confusion. Although, as I mentioned, next level seems to be 106.00/50 area, so I will be looking to sell for that target. Maybe this week, maybe later. In my opinion there is still much room for this currency pair to go (down), and 106 seems to be only the first target. Will see how it goes, no hurry.
     
  5. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    USDCHF:
    Holding short position taken on Thursday @1.3201 with target set at 1.2880. Stop was moved to entry level on Friday. Not much to add at the moment. 1.3130 is the last level. If price holds below that level, down move is not in danger. Once/if we break it for good, there are no serious barriers to retest those lows.
     
  6. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    AUDUSD:
    Aussie has already broke its recent highs last week. Now I see target I am talking about recently - 7155. There is 7000 the round number which can provide resistance, but only temporary one. May consider this pair as a buy once I get a good price to enter if supported technically. Not much to talk about this pair as well. Of course correction is preferred before resumption of the move - that way market will have more power to push through 7000 number. Pure bullish pair here, but beware of the corrections caused by profit taking. If I see good entry, I will enter for sure.
     
  7. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    USDCAD:
    And finally the Canadian. Am holding short position from Thursday here as well @1.3330. Very aggressive seloff was seen on Friday, and just as on Aussie - now we are at new levels. We broke the June-July lows of 1.3350 area, the pair is near its 10 year lows, and week closed around 1.3210/15. I think it's a good sign for downside move potential. My initial target is set to 1.3070, stop was moved to entry level on Friday, and now looking forward to see the next week activities.

    That would be about it for the begining of this week, I wish all to have a very profitable week !

    Kindest Regards,
    Rezo Shmertz
     
  8. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    Euro is under pressure as we see, and it seems like we are breaking the channel - so we may go as low as 1.15 before possible resuming the upside move. But shorting is very dangerous, bcos there may be lots of buyers and when it may reverse back upside we never know.
    My swissy trade was closed at breakeven. I am moving my stop on canadian to 1.3300 to lock at least 30 pips.
    Its a shame I didnt get to short eurjpy as I mentioned it yesterday. I will be looking for possibility later this week.
    Now I am looking at eurgbp as possible buy. will post.

    Good Luck!

    Rezo
     
  9. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    here's the channel being broken downside. The break is around 1.1695 area. If 240min bar closes above that level, there is a chance that the break was false.
     
  10. rezo_s

    rezo_s

    At the moment I have doubts about the long eurgbp, but am looking to short all three of the next:

    gbpusd for 1.6495
    eurjpy for 125.50
    usdjpy for 106.25
     
    #10     Oct 13, 2003