Hello everyone, hope you all are enjoying your weekend. Euro is not the only currency to be traded on forex, but no doubt itâs most traded after us dollar, and that makes EURUSD pair most traded one. Acc to stats of 2001, ~35% of trades on forex is eurusd. This fact turns eurousd pair to be most liquid. So lets start from this one. As my friend Russell suggested, I will attach little image. This pic is not one I have on my charts, but only to show something everyone can observe on there own - the triangle. It will be easier to look at it and read what I mean without switching to charts all the time. Itâs a daily chart. This formation is most important thing in terms of talking what may happen next, so thatâs the main issue now. Once we have a formation, its possible now to observe and analyze the process of its formation. Letâs go step by step and maybe that will help us to understand the sentiment behind it. After the uptrend ran out of steam and the fall began, we had a trend line (yellow line) preventing up move and holding for whole month - from mid June to mid July. Once we got a deep move to 1.1 level for the first time (1), the market was unable to push it, and we got a day close above the opening; i.e. 1.1 area was area of very strong buying, and bears were way much weaker than bulls in that area, so bulls won it easily and that winning got them on such rally, that they were able to break the month old resistance trend line. After a week of that rally half of lost positions were regained and the price was pushed to point (2) : +1.15. Thatâs where bulls were unable to push prices higher, and that brought us to another reaction of bears and attempt to break through 1.1 area (point 3). However, this attempt was little worst - bears didnât get to same recent level, and the day close was once again above opening level, forming bullish candle and giving bulls another chance. Slightly above 1.14 was the highest bulls could push (4) â much lower than the last time. Neither bears, nor bulls were strong enough to push the price either way. But after following the act of price movement during the formation, we can clearly see that although both failed to break the action in their favor, bears are stronger. Why? Because in their second attempt to go lower, bears managed to get to 1.113s; the first got to 1.111s = diff of 20 pips. While bulls pushed the price about 110 pips lower second time than the first. Can this be counted as sign of bulls being weaker than bears, meaning this triangle has more chance to be broken downside rather than upside? Cos at the moment the main thing is what side will the triangle be broken. This is what will determine the next move of about 250-400 pips. So is it going to be 1.08s-1.10s or is it going to be 1.16-1.18? Well, best is to wait and see which way the break will be and trade afterwards, isnât it? Some may bet on one side or another and take position while we are still in the figure, others may trade in range of the figure and take profits on its borders...whatever. I've stressed weak sign for bulls, but there also is weak sign for bears in those two days when trying to go to 1.1 - both days formed bullish candles, i.e. support is very strong. At least it was those two times. Will it be next time? I donât know for sure, but I think if we get a break down, 1.1 will not be that serious level anymore, as bearish sentiment will be approved. For Monday, break downside will be a break of two levels: 1.1260 and 1.1230. For upside, we would need to break 1.1365 and 1.1405. I know those of you looking at this triangle can say: yes, but what you just posted is just a descending triangle description and nothing is new here...well, its not quiet that. Those two single and lonely bars cannot be considered as something we can draw a lone through and say thatâs descending triangle. Therefore the blue line is not relevant. Why are there 2 levels from both sides and not one? Thatâs because once line is drawn through highs and once through most traded areas on top. And from downside I took most traded areas and the average line - pink one. But I think 1.1 may still be level to watch in case there will be a break downside. And another thing to remember about triangle is that if its not broken for long time and price is breaking at its end, the exit is not going to be that rapid. Thatâs the reason I posted earlier that we may expect for move of 250-400 pips, as it depend on when we break through the formation. I would like to stress once again, that this triangle is not purely descending triangle, and therefore it cannot be said that more chances the break will be downside. I am treating this one as simple triangle, and as I posted last week, the break is possible both ways. Therefore my recommendation for those not rushing into trades is to wait for the break. I think thatâs it for single currency now, and I will post the rest little later today. Regards, Rezo.