Weekly Thread: 3-8 August

Discussion in 'Forex' started by rezo_s, Aug 3, 2003.

  1. rezo_s


    Hello ET community. Hope you all are having great weekend. I think there’s no need to quote past week comment I posted and preview last week, as all went wrong and I barely watched the market after I saw the way things went. But I did not waste that time, and tried to improve some techniques and tested couple things on history. In the end, I did not come up with anything new, but lets say it was still very useful. Ok, now lets go one by one with our currency pairs.

    EURUSD Picture is mixed, but still very possible we see the reversal upside here. At the moment seems like 1.12 area is something dollar cannot overcome. I don’t rule out the chance we get a break through recent lows, and in that case first level would be 1.1020 followed by 1.0780. It doesn’t look like very possible scenario, but still. In case we see the bottom here, I think we may target +1.16 on this attempt to go up. As I see, there is more room to go up than down, so up move is something I would like to see in order to go long here targeting +1.16. But in case it goes down, all I need to see is a close below 1.11 – and I sell. So I may trade both up and down. But it can take some time and not happen at the beginning of the week. Whatever market will show, we follow.

    GBPUSD Buy is what I see here, and I will be buying cable in case things don’t change dramatically after Monday trading. I still need to see the Monday action. Of course, first target is 1.6270. Next target can be 1.6345 and more. But first let’s see it really going up. Still, in case we are back on selling, I think cable has much more room: 1.5920, the low of 1.58 and in case that is also broken, all the way to 1.5650 is open. Will wait and see.

    USDCHF Very possible sell here. Inability to go higher is what should put USD under pressure. Targets: 1.3450, 1.3270, 1.3125. I think these are levels that can be reached on this attempt to go down. This pair can show nice decline.

    I have to appologize, but the rest will come a bit later.
    Meanwhile, let me wish you all the best,

  2. rezo_s


    So, let me post in breif what are my intentions for some of the currency pairs in coming sessions.
    May sell in coming days.
    Is a sell here, may sell in european session.
    Sold @ current 7001 stop @7050, tgt 6875. Risk 3.15%, reward 8.11%

    Sidelined at the moment, but may sell if breaks 1.5280 level
    As for the majors, I'm waiting to see the upside move confirmation on eurusd, cable and the down move on usdchf in order to trade theose. (sell usd on majors). As for usdjpy, I see the range trading is over, and if it wont hold firmly above the range levels, there is a chance we get rapid selloff here. For now no trades on this pair.
    Thats it for now, have a profitoble week!

  3. rezo_s


    Well, my eurgbp trade stopped.
    MTD -3.15%
    YTD +46.45%
    At the moment resell is possible. Will wait to see the ending of current move.

  4. rezo_s


    Looks like we are still in uncertian market situation, and I will now post my view on market, i.e what I need in order to trade. On most currency pairs we see the recent levels from both upside and down side. For e.x. in order to trade short USDCHF, I will need to see recent 1.3400/50 area broken downside. Only after that will I be looking for entry to short.
    EURUSD - I wont need any serious break, but only to see a close above 1.14 tomorrow. Afterwards I will wait to enter long.
    I think its very possible to get a beak of levels which kept last attempt of dollar to decline. But once again, its not sertian yet, and tomorrow I need to see further weakness of greenback.
    GBPUSD - my view on cable became very sceptical after what we saw today. Cable was under great pressure aginst all mojors, but I will still be looking for chance to go long in case tomorrow will not bring drastic decline.
    USDJPY - This one looks bullish, despite all other majors showing signals to advance againsd USD. Therefore I think EUR and Cable crosses of YEN will be good to trade against it (long gbpjpy and eurjpy). But here, once again, I need to see a break of 137.20/80 and 194.60/90 upside both on eur/j and gbp/j respectively. Once recent highs are broken, all the way to +139 and +197 are open. But first lets get breaks and seek for good entries afterwards.
    Similar levels form both sides are on aussie and canadian.
    GBPCHF - I think of selling this pair, but not quiet yet. Of course, first tgt would be 2.15, and if broken - 2.1250 same tgt I had when selling this pair last time.
    EURGBP is not a sell at the moment, but I will keep an eye on it.
    EURCHF - same outlook as on sunday. Already close to that level. Lets see what follows.

    Good Trading,
  5. rezo_s


    Ok, here we are getting a retracement on GBPCHF which may
    serve as possible entry for short trade.
    Also would like to long euro with stop app 70-90 pips, targeting
    1.1650. Not sure yet, and signal not that strong. Will be looking
    at it today for possible trade.
    Cable/Usd is also something I'm considering to buy, but once
    again we are still far from entry.
    Also for today I have focus on USDCHF, EURJPY and EURCHF.
    Waiting for break on these pairs (mentioned earlier this week). In
    case broken, I will be seeking for entry.

    Good Trading,
  6. rezo_s


    Here comes the crutual levels for USDCHF - 1.34. The break wont
    mean its a sell right away. It may be a false break and its very
    possible as market was (and probably still is) very uncertian
    recently. So the least I need to say we have 1.34 brooken is:
    1)day close below 1.34 (well below - lets say at least 30-50 pips)
    2)second day it not coming back and closing above 1.34

    In case the break will occur, I will be selling for mid 1.31's.

    On GBPCHF no entry was confirmed, and threfore I wait. Maybe
    there will be a retracement on swissy and that will give entry
    here. Lets wait and hope market will be good.
  7. rezo_s


    Maybe close to entry on GBPCHF. Entry will most probably occur
    as soon as there will be sign of current correction end. This may
    happen anytime from now on and till the end of the day. But most probably in near couple hours.
  8. rezo_s


    sold @ 2.1748
  9. rezo_s


    Stop @ 2.1885 (-137pips or -4.06%)
    Initial tgt @ 2.15 (+248 pips or +7.35%)
    Possible tgt 2.1265 (+483 pips or 14.31%) will be considered if/when the price aproaches initial tgt

    Stop moved to b/e as soon as 2.1690 is seen
  10. rezo_s


    Stopped at b/e.
    Looking to resell.
    #10     Aug 6, 2003