Weekly Short Term Top for Gold...Chart Attached

Discussion in 'Metal Futures' started by Algo_Design_Kid, Dec 4, 2009.

  1. Well, I really do not like gold. But you cannot fight the tape. I believe though this is a weekly short term top. I think gold needs about a 30% +/- correction.

    This is a weekly chart of GLD from back around 2005. The 3 blue lines are the LR and the green lines are my price targets - the top one would be first of course, then if it breaches that one - then the 2nd would be where it would rebound IMO.

    http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1259980951_35_UploadImage.png
     
  2. Mr. Kid, I laud the fact that you posted with a chart to back up your opinion, even though being a "gold to the moon" guy I disagree. Two things. First, would you please identify the ordinate of your graph. It is early in the morning here on the moon where we need more gold, and I don't get it. Second, as firm a believer in technical analysis as I am ("the price is the news"), I am astounded that you think you can apply TA to an international commodity subject to the disparate and conflicting vagaries of the dollar, the Euro, the Chinese, the Indians (of the subcontinent variety), et cetera ad nauseam. Which is why I asked, effectively, what currency you charted in. Makes a difference, I think. I eagerly await your withering reply.
     
  3. Thanks for the reply

    I think you can use TA not only in financial charts, but others as well. It is my belief that most financial charts are fractal somewhat in nature. Although I do not think this works 100% of the time - but sorry OT.

    Its GLD, the US ETF that follows gold. Priced in US DOLLARS of course. Is that what you were wondering?
     
  4. harkm

    harkm

    I would agree that gold is overbought but it appears that the speculative phase hasn't even begun.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Yes, thanks, I didn't know GLD, as I follow only spot for purposes of investing in bullion coins and bars. And occasionally look at GC. I encourage you to think hard about whether or not TA is applicable to the price of gold. Like if the chart looks the same in euros as in dollars. Or what it looks like priced in sweet light crude. Jastram in "The Golden Constant" tracked it over two millenia in the price of a loaf of bread. What is wealth? A dollar bill or a loaf of bread? I myself measure it in my stock of ammunition, what cost a nickel a cartridge ten years ago now costs a quarter.
     
  6. So what are you saying? That it needs to push much higher? I can agree I guess with that - although on a short term weekly scale I would say we need a correction
     
  7. Well I have never thought about it priced in another currency than the US DOLLAR.

    I think TA is applicable to anything IMO. But my opinion doesnt really matter in the big scheme of things. In this model it looks overpriced and I am just using historical information to make a hypothesis. Either way your risk reward is worth it IMO because if it breaks the top LR line, its over, and otherwise you can short it all the way down and keep increasing your trailing stop (theoretically).
     
  8. jj69

    jj69

    Highly unlikely. I don't think gold goes under 1120 on this move down. There's a ZG gap left there vs. GC that it may try to fill. It's uncanny how gold eventually fills every single gap on the ZG. I'm thinking maybe it's because many more people had(eCBOT) and have(NYSE LIFFE) cheaper access to ZG than subscribing to Comex data for the GC.
     
  9. harkm

    harkm


    I guess what I am saying is that when you use weekly charts that are not log scale it distorts the the view. That move up in 2006 was a huge move but look how small it looks on your chart. Pan out a little further and use a log chart and the view becomes clearer. We are overbought a little but it doesn't look like the mania everybody is making it out to be.
     
  10. risky63

    risky63

    we'll put in a short term top in response to a strenghting dollar.
    you will see higher prices later( bout 3 months)
    it always takes alot longer to come about than you plan on.
    the recent move up is textbook elliot..... should be a little double top , then a,b c. then higher as we go thru 72 on the usd index.
    maybe mar -april.
     
    #10     Dec 5, 2009