i look at polls but they are very tricky. i don't think there is a huge edge just blindly fading the poll. once i get enough data points it may be more clear how valuable fading ET poll actually is. i do highly intuitive swing trading and i suck at it but i hope to eventually get better at it.
the blog i mention is one of the few i look at once in a while. it actually belongs to somebody from ET.
BBC is mentioning riots in a major city in France. Does anyone know more about this? Is it significant for Europe stocks, and for the Euro?
VIX was increasing while the market was flat (Tuesday-Thursday) When we finally did turn, VIX hit 11% off the weekly low. To me that signals people were already positioning a down day. If we continue down on Monday I expect a sharper increase in the vix. Good point
does 104 level have any validity any more? any important level ~104-106 SPY? i am thinking that it would be natural for the market to squeeze the remaining longs some more (~1-2%) before staging a meaningful bounce higher. the move higher may happen as soon as this Mon IMHO.
I want to address all the readers of Shortie's threads. I believe that Shortie is making an outstanding contribution to ET by taking the lead (consistently and regularly) on his now classic threads, and he deserves recognition, encouragement, and possibly some help from you. I think you can help his threads by voting in those polls, as otherwise they would not have value if participation is low. So make it a habit to vote, and do it now. Do not delay--It takes only few seconds from your valuable time. By the way, I am not shortie, which should clear any negative thoughts that may come to your mind. I wish to all of you a happy, and successful trading! And to Shortie, keep up the good work and warmest thanks.
I voted! I agree with Shortie about the VIX. Plus there's a descending triangle on the daily SPY and I suspect people will be coming back from vacation tomorrow and looking to sell. Also, the first half of July is better than the second half. Large dark candle on Friday, not nice. That's why I went short over the weekend.
I'm, for now, sticking to my forecast of a brief dip below 1000 on the S&P before the market gets going in earnest on a Fall rally. But, of course, intraday i don't really give a damn --either way is OK by me so long as it moves. (I try not to look at my IRA balances too often, that can be a scary. ) P.S. I continue to think that much depends on what the dollar does relative to the other major currencies, and I monitor that closely. The Fed can more less push the market up at will by weakening the dollar. And they might even have that role wrested from them.