Weekly Poll: Will Buyers Knocked Out By Expiration Put Up A Fight?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Jul 17, 2010.

SPY Next Week?

Poll closed Jul 23, 2010.
  1. Bullish

    11 vote(s)
    27.5%
  2. Flat

    6 vote(s)
    15.0%
  3. Bearish

    19 vote(s)
    47.5%
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    4 vote(s)
    10.0%
  1. That is a concern indeed. My thinking is to consider a small size straddle, and use some of the premium to buy cheap penny options (like weekly pennies) to hedge against a black swan overnights. One can also delta hedge/negative gamma scalp.

    There is also the other option that I do not have to spend money on... shitting my pants...:)
     
    #11     Jul 17, 2010
  2. Another strange sign: the bonds made a new highs, but stock market did not go to the lows. The bond move was a ferocious move, triggered by the Fed meeting words.

    This move of bonds, coupled with what happened in stocks and in the dollar are strange. Maybe it is easy credit, yet an inflation worry move for non-dollars?
     
    #12     Jul 17, 2010
  3. LOL

    i play that option way too often. it is not free BTW (gray hair and/or dirty pants and/or bad night sleep)
     
    #13     Jul 17, 2010
  4. This is a "vacationing in Malawi" market . . . Investors are trying to avoid the next 5% decline and they're going to miss the 50% rally. Unlike in 2008, when a 5% decline was nothing . . . you can't miss the next big rally!
     
    #14     Jul 17, 2010
  5. Regarding the upside, I currently do not see why the market would go beyond 117.5? Note that 110 is the middle of 102.5 and 117.5. Is it the reason why 110 was a battle ground?
     
    #15     Jul 17, 2010
  6. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Why would you be long if your stated strategy is to be a contrarian last week?
     
    #16     Jul 17, 2010
  7. I am not shortie, but he is contrarian if he decided to go long on friday end of day because market was down? You do not agree?
     
    #17     Jul 17, 2010
  8. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Nope -- that would be a mean reversion trader. He stated to fade the majority of the poll, which was mostly bullish.
     
    #18     Jul 17, 2010
  9. LEAPup

    LEAPup

    Agreed

    Btw, which blog are you talking about?
     
    #19     Jul 17, 2010
  10. blog?
     
    #20     Jul 17, 2010