Weekly Poll: Will Buyers Knocked Out By Expiration Put Up A Fight?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Jul 17, 2010.

SPY Next Week?

Poll closed Jul 23, 2010.
  1. Bullish

    11 vote(s)
    27.5%
  2. Flat

    6 vote(s)
    15.0%
  3. Bearish

    19 vote(s)
    47.5%
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    4 vote(s)
    10.0%
  1. When I check MSFT it was at 25.60ish. The 26 straddle was around 0.50. Already lost around half its value of yesterday. Time decay in action.
     
    #121     Jul 23, 2010
  2. Are they going to hit the stops of bears first or of bulls first?

    Is there such as thing as the butterfly effect in markets?
     
    #122     Jul 23, 2010
  3. "butterfly effect" :confused:

    Butterfly effect
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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    For other uses, see Butterfly effect (disambiguation).
    Point attractors in 2D phase space.

    The butterfly effect is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory; namely that small differences in the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. Although this may appear to be an esoteric and unusual behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill might roll into any of several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position. The butterfly effect is a common trope in fiction when presenting scenarios involving time travel and with "what if" scenarios where one storyline diverges at the moment of a seemingly minor event resulting in two significantly different outcomes.


    Butterfly (options)
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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    Payoff chart from buying a butterfly spread.
    Profit from a long butterfly spread position. The spread is created by buying a call with a relatively low strike (x1), buying a call with a relatively high strike (x3), and shorting two calls with a strike in between (x2).

    In finance, a butterfly is a limited risk, non-directional options strategy that is designed to have a large probability of earning a small limited profit when the future volatility of the underlying is expected to be different from the implied volatility.
     
    #123     Jul 23, 2010
  4. ah! 110 yet again! looks like it may break through finally
     
    #124     Jul 23, 2010
  5. Breakout Failure Alert!!!! SPY 110.26
     
    #125     Jul 23, 2010
  6. scratch SPY 110.29
     
    #126     Jul 23, 2010
  7. I wish it could reach 111 for SPY and 46.25 for QQQQ for today. I could almost hear the sellers talking at those levels--Listen, and you might hear them, one of them is discussing shortie short sale what he scratched. :)

    I might settle for selling slim calls.
     
    #127     Jul 23, 2010
  8. Were expecting a 100-meter dash?

    2:47PM: the buyers in the last two hours upmove on EUR/USD are now about to face the sellers. Let us see what the clash will lead to.

    3:04PM: sellers pushed buyers from 1.2930 to 1.2915. Is this reflected in stocks?
     
    #128     Jul 23, 2010
  9. as far as thread title, the answer is that the bulls did put up a fight. actually it was a total mess: up/down/up/down/up. i am quite sure that many traders with good strats made huge killing this week.

    i am just happy to break even. :D :D :D
     
    #129     Jul 23, 2010
  10. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Poll was great -- congrats to the minority bulls.
     
    #130     Jul 23, 2010