Lol... As soon as I posted that, the market reverses sharply the other way and invalidates my prediction...
i take it that it was GS news that made bears puke their lunch today. SPY 110 level was tested during regular hours, the test failed and now we are back to 110 again AH. if i count it right this is the 6th time 110 is visited in the last few days. Any theory about these repeated visitations?
Now that the market has positioned itself for tomorrow's S&P open (apparently the market is happy with a close today something near 1095, and if it's happy, i'm happy for it). The question for me now is: "Are we going to have the mini- crash (dip) below 1000 to the 970-980 area between tomorrow and the first week in August-- or should I give up on that and start preparing now for Ben's onslaught on the dollar going into the November election. I think we can keep the dollar down very nicely and crude up and still get refiner prices down at the pump. It will take a little cleverness. But we can always retain the GS boys and girls (Abby, i'm talking about you girl.) as consultants if we can't think of anything clever enough on our own. (GS could always drop RBOB all together from the GSCI if drastic measures are needed -- I'm sure they could always come up with an excellent reason such as, "after careful consideration we believe the index will better reflect overall commodity prices by dropping gasoline and adding bananas." *As a footnote, I expect SET tomorrow to be lower than 1095, but what do I know? DISCLAIMER-- This post is intended to be realistic rather than cynical, therefore consider any cynical tone as unintended.
spy closing 3 days at the same price is interesting, 6 failed tests of 110 level are interesting, the large up-move in the last 8 days is interesting = should be a very interesting expr.