I hardly ever watch Cramer, but this is one time when the probability is with him. Expect a rising market from August-Early September to the first week in November. All Bernanke has to do is ensure a weakening dollar. Should be easy enough to pull off.
Cramer has so many conflicting calls that he can point to any one of them and say "he nailed it." For example, "take your money out of the market for 5 years!" followed by "buy this market!" a few months later. He should have zero credibility by now, but somehow his TV show survives. His buy the financials call right before the sh*t hit the fan was my favorite, with his $80 stocks go to $120 theory (right before the bear market arrived) was second on my list of all-time idiotic calls. It's amazing how many free passes this moron gets.
No, it's the endless supply of "that next trader" that makes his show survive the same way Ameritrade, IB, and other brokers survive. They stay in business by opening that next account. Cramer survives because there is always someone opening that next account.
updated poll results in the journal through july 05 if somebody is interested. i will wait until we get ~30 data points to put the data on SPY chart: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2894058#post2894058
Shortie: I believe that polls should start on a Wednesday for a number of reasons. People would have formed an opinion based on market action, and also because shifts in Markets typically happen on Wednesdays. Market changes at anytime, but people's opinion do not change as fast during the week. That is I believe the majority lose. It is a hypothesis. You can skip it of course if you judge I am being nuts with this thing --- which is probable.
the issue is of a technical nature. i have noticed that not many people vote during the week. it is easier to gets vote over the weekend. even now we have only 11 vote, probably because of the summer.