Weekly Poll: September 11 - Does It Matter?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Sep 3, 2010.

SPY Next Week?

Poll closed Sep 10, 2010.
  1. Bullish

    14 vote(s)
    37.8%
  2. Flat

    9 vote(s)
    24.3%
  3. Bearish

    12 vote(s)
    32.4%
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    2 vote(s)
    5.4%
  1. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    I was looking over some posts from spring/summer 2009 and what I noticed is a group of permabears posting ridiculously pessimistic ideas over and over again no end. I posted a few of them from this S2007S guy last night they are pretty funny. Far too many really to address them scientifically I'm sure we could make a hall of shame thread concerning the bears of 2009. There is even repeated mocking of anyone who dared to predict a bull move in the market ( which everyone knows now occurred ).

    The last poster is bang on correct some of you should be ashamed of yourselves and STOP posting this overdone pessimism about markets. Where is the learning curve here people ? Yes, markets go up and down, but there is absolutely nothing that today's market that suggests a market crash is imminent.

    At least be realistic about the calls. Something like saying there is a 5-20% chance the Dow goes to 9000 by year end is reasonable. But no less reasonable would be saying a 5-20% chance the Dow goes to 12000. But what do we get instead ?
    Market crash is imminent ???? Either some of you are ignorant, extremely inexperienced, or you are continually buying short term Puts hoping to catch a massive home run on your money.
     
    #21     Sep 6, 2010
  2. excellent analysis! but now that we BOUNCED hugely over the last 3 days, where to next?
     
    #22     Sep 6, 2010
  3. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Silver and copper prices tommorrow morning could be the catalyst for a market move up or down.
     
    #23     Sep 6, 2010
  4. jonp

    jonp

    nikkei and topix both down. eur/usd down almost a full cent to 1.2797. and the downward momentum going into tomorrow has started. fasten your seatbelts we have a few gaps to close, and a few key levels to retest. i.e spy 107.10 and 104.4. we've been in a bear market the last 5 months, and this failure of a rally will not help add to bullish sentiment.
     
    #24     Sep 6, 2010
  5. What defines a bear market to you? We were around 1200 in April, we're around 1100 now. That's not even 5%. A slight downturn is not a bear, regardless of the usual gloom & doom the usual losers keep promoting.
    By the way, my screen shows all futures green as of right now, for whatever that's worth, which ain't much.
     
    #25     Sep 6, 2010
  6. jonp

    jonp

    aprils highs down to junes lows was well over 5%, even from 1200 to 1100 is over 5%. regardless, there is no interest in the market, the only types of rallies we've seen lately have been short squeezes. I feel like there is still way too much fear for these levels to be printing. it's like if a few pieces of bad news come out, which will definitely occur, people will be selling at market as fast as they possibly can. we were at 1100 back in decjanfeb, and it seems like things looked rosier back then than how they turned out to be.

    basically I just think that there is more room to the downside than to the upside. with all the uncertainty going forward and the memories of 07-08 fresh in peoples minds, they will sooner find a reason to dump their shares rather than going out to buy more. I'll give a 2010 year end estimate of the s&p of about 950-1000 points. there is simply not enough capital pouring in to sustain this market.

    Also I don't know how this will play out in the long run but many baby boomers are slowly selling off their portfolios and packages in return for cash. there is tons of capital going out, and not much interest going in, especially with most young people not even able to find jobs, never mind being able to save enough and even willing to invest it.

    what makes you think that more money will be invested in american equities before more is taken out?
     
    #26     Sep 6, 2010
  7. The fact that bonds have been in a blindingly obvious bubble. This last rally in bonds was a classic blowoff, and it just ended with a huge move to the downside, which was mirrored by classic breakout behavior over in the equity market.
    Pretty simple stuff, really.
     
    #27     Sep 6, 2010
  8. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    S&P 500 is down 1% for the year after a big gain since early 2009. You call that a "bear market" ? Obviously, you haven't been trading very long.
     
    #28     Sep 7, 2010
  9. What a complete and total fucking coward you are. You're like that douchebag who talks shit while driving by in a car, but doesn't have the balls to say it to their face.

    Everybody is a genius with the benefit of hindsight.
     
    #29     Sep 7, 2010
  10. jonp

    jonp

    my tza and vxx are showing me a profit, i think i'm just gonna hold these for a while though. hope your long 110.95's are working out for you, like you said the canadian banks had strong earnings right? I think citi, bac and lvs all had very strong earnings in the first quarter of 07 too. that was a great time to invest in them.
     
    #30     Sep 7, 2010