Weekly Poll: September 11 - Does It Matter?

Talk about the historically weak September: +5.4% in only 3 days!
Are we gonna lose most of the gains by month end to match the historical performance?

The next week should be interesting: we have large gains (too fast too soon?), we also have Sep 11 anniversary.

 

historical performance FYI:

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/pee...month-4607.html
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:the_pre-holiday_effe

 

some major bad events that happened in the last ~40 years in the coming week:

Sep 06
#1997 – Diana, Princess of Wales is laid to rest in front of a television audience of more than 2.5 billion.

Sep 07
#1979 – The Chrysler Corporation asks the United States government for USD $1.5 billion to avoid bankruptcy.
# 1999 – A 5.9 magnitude earthquake rocks Athens, rupturing a previously unknown fault, killing 143, injuring more than 500, and leaving 50,000 people homeless.
# 2004 – Hurricane Ivan, a Category 5 hurricane hit Grenada, killing 39 and damaging 90% of its buildings.
#2008 – The US Government takes control of the two largest mortgage financing companies in the US, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Sep 08
# 1970 – Hijacking (and subsequent destruction) of three airliners to Jordan by Palestinians; the events to follow would later become known as Black September

Sep 09
# 1965 – Hurricane Betsy makes its second landfall near New Orleans, Louisiana, leaving 76 dead and $1.42 billion ($10–12 billion in 2005 dollars) in damages, becoming the first hurricane to top $1 billion in unadjusted damages.
# 1966 – The National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act is signed into law by U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson.
# 1969 – Allegheny Airlines Flight 853 DC-9 collides in flight with a Piper PA-28 and crashes near Fairland, Indiana.

Sep 10
# 1972 – The United States suffers its first loss of an international basketball game in a disputed match against the Soviet Union at Munich, Germany.
# 1976 – A British Airways Hawker Siddeley Trident and an Inex-Adria DC-9 collide near Zagreb, Yugoslavia, killing 176.
#2008 – The Large Hadron Collider at CERN, described as the biggest scientific experiment in history is powered up in Geneva, Switzerland.

Sep 11
# 1968 – Air France Flight 1611 crashes off Nice, France, killing 89 passengers and 6 crew.
#1973 – A coup in Chile headed by General Augusto Pinochet topples the democratically elected president Salvador Allende. Pinochet remains in power for almost 17 years.
#1982 – The international forces that were guaranteeing the safety of Palestinian refugees following Israel's 1982 Invasion of Lebanon leave Beirut. Five days later, several thousand refugees are massacred in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps.
#1992 – Hurricane Iniki, one of the most damaging hurricanes in United States history, devastates Hawaii, especially the islands of Kauai and Oahu.
#2001 – The September 11 attacks take place in the United States. Airplane hijackings result in the collapse of the World Trade Center in New York City, destruction of the western portion of The Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, and a passenger airliner crash in Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
# 2007 – Russia tests the largest conventional weapon ever, the Father of all bombs.

 

Nope we are not losing the gains.. The market wouldnt of come back to the 1100 level if we was going down... We are going back up like it or hate it 1200 is coming...

 

NYSE market internals summary (16:16 EDT)
Volume is very heavy for this time of day. Breadth is bullish across the board. Advancing Issues: 2312 / Declining Issues: 700 -- for a ratio of 3.3 to 1. Advancing Volume: 775,313,000 / Declining Volume: 110,845,000 -- for a ratio of 7.0 to 1. New 52-Week Highs: 275 / New 52-Week Lows: 9. :theflyonthewall.com

It was a true break-out week.
The drying up of new lows today is especially significant.
Next week will be up, just not as much as this week. The week after will be up bigtime.
This is the start of the next phase of the bull that started back in March 2009. Be there or be square.

 

Agree. I don't think 9/11 has the slightest bit to do with markets. Just a time for reflection. The SPX closed above the 1100 level, a feat that it has had trouble doing lately. This alone will spur on buying, subject to news . . .

 

How about this for a scenario.
It seems that the Monday before every NFP this year, the market "anticipates" the number regardless of the headfakes that the other jobs and economic figures bring that precede it.
The market trends in that direction all week.
NFP is released and as if by magic the big players got it right, only the market doesn't move in the direction the NFP implies as the big players fade the market to take their profits.
You know what, when the number 1 tool Paulson said 100 times that they would use all tools available to recapitalise the banks, save the world etc etc, he was just covering himself legally. If he ever had to stand trial then he could say this in his defense when opposing counsel asked him how he could justify giving a select handful of players, the economic releases several days early.
We have seen many rallies in this bear market, and the vast majority have happened on low volume. If today's rally was in fact on high volume ( and this is hypothetical because I am reacting to earlier comments rather than checking the facts) then I would suggest the following hypothesis.
The Tarp banks and HFs that have politician friends played their regular game this NFP week. The only difference is this -they suckered in some new money, perhaps retail, that has been sat on the sidelines for a while, and when these people put in bids they were delighted to offload all the positions that they have been averaging down on courtesy of the taxpayer. More canon fodder came in and they got rid of more and more trash that masquerades as US equities. Hurray hurray hurray, the failed banks took a major step towards financial health today.
Could the market go to 12k? If it had anything to do with the economy then no way. But it's completely detached from reality as it is run by the people who should be fixing your computers.
It's just a game. Who gives a fuck. Enjoy the ride. You'll get better odds at a casino but if you want to invest in the US stock market then more fool you.

 

Lessee, that would only be about the, oh, I dunno, millionth time I've read the same thing on this board, with ever increasing stridency & desperation since early last year?
Such daring insight. I stand in awe.

 

i doubt this is a major rally in progress. my reason is that VIX did not spike much at the latest bottom. VIX went ~21 ->~29. this is a small %spike. therefore, the true capitulation did not happen and the rally is suspect.

 

Around September 20th.......lets just see if Greece FIGHTS BACK and says NO to the Euro Zone CON JOB!!!

I will wear a Greece T-shirt this month and CHEER for the Greek citizens to start taking back their country!!!

http://www.zazzle.com/greece+soccer+tshirts

GO GREECE