Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Oct 29, 2010.
sleepy market until QE2 news and then BAM!
we will have the election results as well.
Next week will be sleepy until Wednesday morning.
Fireworks all over the place after that: elections Tuesday, Fed on Wednesday, and Friday morning the employment report.
Gold was up double digits yesterday and today, and obliterated, massacred even, the short term sell signal I'd seen last week. I don't know what the Fed will do, but gold is signaling that it will be more than enough to counter the PBOC's incremental withdrawal of liquidity.
So, overall, bullish. But there will be lots of craziness in between, I'm sure.
QE2 is a non-event 1-2 days from Wed. It is an event that will generate some spot volatility on Wed but by Thursday the market will be calm again.
What will Fed announce? they can't afford not to do QE2 now that they have advertised it. So they will officially announce it. is it a big deal? NO.
Is the amount of QE2 the big unknown that could move the market? NO. Because whatever they announce can always change later. In fact, I bet they will give themselves enough leeway to update/change QE2 details as they go on (and watch the market reaction along the way).
Fed is just playing a mindf*k game with the market. Why is it doing this?
Because it has nothing better to do.
I believe the post election political climate will be hard to predict. Empty headed sound bite politics will be put to the test big time. The politics on NO is exactly what isn't needed right now.
08 Save the global banking system from it's own stupidity.
09 Propping up the general economy (wishful thinking).
010 Saving the politicians? Resurrecting the GOP? Propping up the general economy (wishful thinking).
011 Hard to envision anyone will support any of the off the chain behaviors that got us to this point. Bond holders are the Fed's real constituency. Bill Gross pretty much outed the Fed with his recent Ponzi remarks.
I believe the Fed will attempt to "wait and see" QE expectations out of this market place. If not they are definitely "drinking the markets coolaid". Their job used to be to take away the punch bowl before the party got out of hand. Unless we get a big number, get ready to put shorts on.
Everything the Fed does has significant lag before results impact the real economy. Looks like we're in for a wild ride.
some bullish bias but small going into Election Day. The returns in the table are probably the annualized ones.
Not sure what the benchmark is. 8%?
Bearish because I guess that a selloff will occur from the news at some point this week.
Futures up nicely, except for bond futures. It appears the breakout in gold and sharp fall in the dollar is going to be priced into everything else tomorrow.
Futures continue to make new highs while everyone is sound asleep.
1188.3 _ 8.6 +0.73%
11140.0 _ 74.0 +0.67%
2135.0 _ 13.0 +0.61%
81.88 _ 0.45 +0.55%
More Markets _ 09:43:07 PM ET
Bubble ben bernanke is doing a fine job and will NOT let anyone down on Wednesday when he gives everyone what they want which is trillions worth of QE2. Thank you Bubble ben bernanke for a colapsing dollar and high commodity prices, thank you.
As usual I have to DISAGREE with cramer, he thinks a 3-10% correction is coming, I think this guy is crazy, If anything the markets will be up 3-10%!
Who does this fool think hes kidding, this market is not going down, its going HIGHER!!!!!!
Buy every dip you get!
Cramer: Next Weekâs 3 âBig, Bad Eventsâ
Published: Saturday, 30 Oct 2010 | 12:03 AM ET
By: Tom Brennan
Web Editor, Mad Money
Investors should prepare for a âgenuinely momentous next week,â Cramer said during Fridayâs âMad Money.â
Rather than earnings dominating the market, a few different sets of numbers will control the action: Tuesdayâs midterm elections, Wednesdayâs Federal Reserve announcement and Fridayâs jobs report.
As of now, thereâs a consensus on Wall Street that at least one, if not two, of these events will go bad, and thatâll cause a 3-percent to 10-percent correction in stocks. Hereâs how the Street breaks it down:
A Republican win of either house of Congress, and the House is looking more likely than the Senate, will sink stocks for that first 3 percent. Why? Because while the victory would slow down President Obamaâs agenda, which many see as anti-business, the White House could still enact regulations at the federal level. Wall Street sees any opening for Obama as a bad thing, and that will weigh on stocks.
In regards to the Fed announcement on Wednesday, we will almost definitely get news of further quantitative easing, Cramer said, itâs just a matter of how much. Whether itâs $250 billion or $2 trillion, though, and estimates are all in that range, just know that the bears will be on the attack. Theyâll say that even that $2 trillion wonât be enough or thatâs it is too inflationary. If that happens, the market decline jumps to 5 percent.
Expect 10 percent, Cramer said, if Fridayâs unemployment number is bad, too, because the academics like Nouriel Roubini and Joseph Stiglitz will jump all over it. To them, itâs a sign of the Apocalypse. Well, at least a double-dip recession. And renowned bank analysts Meredith Whitney will chime in, saying itâs terrible for that sector as well. In this case, you get the trifectaâpolitics, policy and jobsâand the losses in stocks creeps into double-digit territory.
Cramerâs not so sure thatâs going to happen, though. This kind of negativity is so common place, he said, that itâs probably already baked in. So maybe thereâs a chance investors hunker down for the week and then emerge, rally ready, on Friday, even if the jobs number is weak.
âOr to put it another way,â Cramer said, âthe scariest thing that happens in the near future is Halloween, and the likelihood of a 3% to 10% pullback diminishes the more I hear it whispered.â
Cramer will still watch earnings next week, especially around hot-button issues. BP [BP 40.80 0.20 (+0.49%) ] and Anadarko Petroleum [APC 61.57 -0.20 (-0.32%) ]âon Tuesday and Monday, respectivelyâwill key us in on the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, which reentered the news on Thursday. Vulcan Materials [VMC 36.51 0.25 (+0.69%) ], also on Monday, will provide information on stimulus spending. Chesapeake Energy [CHK 21.68 0.35 (+1.64%) ] on Wednesday is an open window on natural gas. And Emerson Electric [EMR 54.90 0.07 (+0.13%) ] will give us a picture of macroeconomic issues and, Cramer hopes, reignite the industrials group.
Lastly, on Tuesday thereâs Clorox [CLX 66.55 0.21 (+0.32%) ], which gets virtually all of its sales from the US. The metrics to watch here are volume and pricing power.
âOf course,â Cramer said, âall of these earnings reports are of diminished importance compared to the three big bad events of the week.â
it would make sense for the market to really test Shorts going into Wed. There should be many shorts who are under water with the market so overextended to the upside. Now push the market +2% before Wed: even more pain for Shorts AND the uncertainty of Wed. Many will bail out by Tue I guess.
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