Weekly Poll: Pullback This Week? PART 3

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Sep 24, 2010.

SPY Next Week?

Poll closed Oct 1, 2010.
  1. Bullish

    15 vote(s)
  2. Flat

    5 vote(s)
  3. Bearish

    10 vote(s)
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    2 vote(s)
  1. ZZZZ...

    we had a decent pullback last week, but of course by Friday all bad was forgotten and we are at new high. QQQQ is totally out of control.

    the market reminds me of Mar-Apr 2010 advance and even of July 2009 especially if one looks at the intensity of QQQQ move.
  2. European markets are gonna break up IMO
  3. KMAX


    LOL my record in this weekly poll is 3-6. It's a good thing I don't trade with the way I vote.
    I say #$%^ it go with the flow, don't fight the tape, we're going higher.
  4. S2007S


    4 STRAIGHT weeks of gains and by the articles I am reading at the close of this week show the money hungry bulls and managers are of course expecting gains upon gains upon gains all through the rest of year. When does a bull say that its actually time to take profits and wait out for the next pull back, it seems anytime the market goes through this type of uptrend everyone yells that its only going higher putting predictions as high as 1350 by the end of this year. All I know is that I have seen this time and time again, however in 2000 and 2007 there were at least some reasons for the huge gains in the markets, today not so really. In 2000 we had the dot com bubble and in 2000-2007 a huge fucking credit bubble, I am just trying to think what kind of bubble they create now to sustain such increases in equities moving forward.

    Here is what I found in some of the articles today, (no one is bearish by the way)

    Halftime: Does S&P Bounce Confirm Next Leg Higher?
    Published: Friday, 24 Sep 2010 | 1:29 PM ET

    "Market technicians consider the move rather bullish, considering 1130 was a level where the S&P failed in both June and August. They say it confirms the theory that what was once resistance has now become support."

    Does the S&P bounce confirm the next leg higher?

    SPX 1148.67 23.84 (+2.12%%)

    Some of Friday’s move higher is likely short covering, explains Steve Grasso of Stuard Frankel.

    I was one of those skeptics, admits OptionMonster Pete Najarian and the rally caught me off guard. The way stocks closed Thursday combined with the spike in the Vix [VIX 21.71 -2.16 (-9.05%) ] looked like the beginning of a sell-off. But now I think the market is going higher.

    Looking more closely at the technicals the next key level is 1150, Steve Grasso adds. If we can get above 1150, it opens to door quickly to 1165 as perhaps even 1185. Also, it’s important to note that the S&P can fill gaps and, technically, the trend remains bullish. That means the market can fall as far as 1110 and the rally remains in tact as long as we don't break below. Big picture, I think the S&P is going higher.


    Also, comments from hedge fund heavy weight David Tepper of Appaloosa generated tailwinds for bulls. In a CNBC exclusive interview he said he believes the economy will improve and doesn’t expect the S&P to slide much lower than 1100.

    ”Either the economy gets better by itself and what assets are going to do well… stocks,” he said. ”Or the economy doesn’t pick up and the Fed steps up with QE and what does well… everything!”

    More insights from the Fast Money gang

    I also think the market is going higher, says Joe Terranova. Don’t forget we’re in the end of September which is historically not very good. But, this year we haven’t had the typical sell-off. I have to believe money managers are caught by surprise and now they’re forced to chase performance.

    The traders are watching Amazon [AMZN 160.73 7.88 (+5.16%) ] which surged to a new all time high on Friday.

    AMAZON.COM INC 160.73 7.88 (+5.16%%)

    What should you make of it?

    Options action in the space suggests investors are looking for even more upside, reveals Pete Najarian.

    That says to me the whole theme of Internet commerce is a theme that’s clearly driving commerce, muses Zach Karabell. These are high margin, incredible business growth stories.
  5. The question is the pullback, not whether it is a bull/horizontal. It is clearly not a bear.

    QQQQ are the only index that did not break the 2003 lows in the march 2009 lows. They are the leader of this market. I learned this back in March rise, but I keep forgetting it.

    There was a video few weeks ago by one infomercial idiot (the guy with a big tongue and a big mouth). He was saying that his inside connections (Among them Paul Tudor who he mentors in area of inner feelings) told him a big break is coming in markets, and to be prepared, and he wanted to let average joe know about it. It was at the bottom of the last few months of the correction. It was the absolute bottom.

    Shortie: if you have readers who are from california, someone needs to tell that idiot to shut his trap.

    The good news today for a pullback next week is russell 2000 which was lagging the last time I checked, and it has been the second leader after the QQQQs if memory does not fail me.
  6. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    two pomo operations to drive up the market next week. additionally, funds are doing all they can to show gains for the quarter to prevent withdrawls.

    does anyone here or anywhere else TRULY believe that this economy justifies the best september in SEVENTY-ONE years?
  7. jonp


    russell 2000/iwm caught up, it ripped three and a quarter percent today.
  8. Don't you get it yet this is a bull market move supported by strong technicals and news ( eg earnings reports have been strong for several important companies ). The idea that fund managers have been caught off guard is no surprise this is a natural stage in such a rally. Many of them face looking very badly at year end if they were cash heavy during the latest 10% move.

    For the market to move up there had to be some leading sectors. There are two, commodities and technology. The financials had very little reason to move up and they basically stalled out. In some sense, your bearish reasoning could apply to US financials. But there is so much more to the market then US financials, as I clearly pointed out weeks ago. For every idiotic stock like Citigroup ( basically insolvant ) is an undervalued Research in Motion ( strong earnings, P/E of less then 10 ).

    I think technology has much more room to grow, that sector underperformed most in the 2009 market rally. However, I suspect they can't move the market by themselves. So the key catalyst is commodities. This makes guaging where the market is going fairly simple. Simply check the prices of Copper, Silver, and Oil each morning. If they aren't correcting the market won't correct. This of course is asuming no new large catalyst in the form of economic news occurs ( the old news is priced in already ).

    Investing in quality assets has nothing to do with greed. If one wants to be "greedy" the best play would be short term put options hoping for the massive market crash you ( and others ) have been predicting for what seems like forever.
  9. You posted that there would be a "massive dump" on the market this Thursday and Friday. To invest in such a call would have involved large scale losses of capital. At some point, you are going to have to realize you don't get to dictate when the market will make a move. You need to react to the given direction and play that direction.

    Stop trying to be a hero guessing the market. If I wake up this morning and Copper's down 10 cents and Silver down $1 then maybe that dump is happening. But to predict its going to happen ahead of time with NO REAL CATALYST you are going to get owned far more times then you will be right.
  10. But those who shorted the market on Thursday did follow the then downtrend similar to what you explained. We know what happened to them today. Where does one draw the line?
    #10     Sep 24, 2010