Weekly Poll: Pullback This Week? PART 2

last round of rounding up the bulls, the trap has been placed, smart money shorted the push above 1131, it's time to dump, today and tomorrow won't be pretty, and won't be green.

 

Must be dumb money coming back in now, huh? Yeesh.

 

it's 3:30, Support is failing at spy 113

 

what's that trefoil can't hear you from way down here. nice gravestone doji on the weekly, markets at lows of the day and near lows of the week

 

broke support on the Dow and the S+P but NOT the NASDAQ

what up now?

 

check out XLF: ~-5% in 3 days! SPY seems to have put up a short-term top.

but QQQQ would not budge, what's up with that?

 

I think institutions are plowing into the q's. I don't put much into it. Maybe i'm wrong.

 

Yeah, those who bought into the temporary rally today were dumb...

 

You won one. Don't get too excited.
For me, no biggie. I was flat most of the day, since my whole thesis is that we're crawling sideways mostly with an up bias.
What I did do was buy into the afternoon dip. Not flat for tomorrow. First time since the beginning of the week I'm positioned for an upside breakout. Have hedges in place to limit losses, of course, but I will actually lose money tomorrow if we go down again like we did today (limit is at a 3% loss).
Durable goods, and new home sales up as news. If Europe can behave, we could end nicely. If not, well, c'est la guerre.
Will be traveling tomorrow, so after the morning you won't be hearing from me unless I can get a connection tomorrow night sometime, which will be iffy. Good luck to all, anyway.
Oh, btw, 187 new highs, 18 new lows on the NYSE. Not exactly bearish.

 

"And at a time when last week’s weekly AAII investor sentiment poll showed 50.9% bullish? That’s the highest level of bullishness and complacency since it reached 54.6% bullish in October, 2007 near the October, 2007 top of the 2003-2007 bull market. The other higher reading was 53.3% bullish on May 1, 2008, as the market ended a bear market rally and plunged into its unfavorable season leg down of 2008.

Other readings not quite as high, but at interesting times: The poll reached 49.2% bullish just prior to the Jan/Feb correction this year, and 48.5% bullish at the April top this year.

So, is the market dangerously overbought? Just asking."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/226743-look-out-below


sounds quite ominous but as i said earlier the type of overzealous bullishness that we had for example in Apr 2010 is just not here by looking through the headlines.

BTW, the author contradicts himself by first saying we have the second highest bullish reading since Oct 2007, only to mention later that there was another higher reading in 2008 (Sy, were there more higher reading than the present one??)