Weekly Poll: Pullback This Week? PART 2

Emanuel and Summers are due to leave - people don't stay in those posts very long. IMO, companies missing and guiding lower now is a nice setup for a big pop later in the year.

 

Ok, what I've noticed is there has been several weeks of these silly threads with the same group of guys posting over and over again why the markets are going to drop huge.

And the market goes up, with numerous decent to strong earnings reports and strong rising commodity prices. No real catalyst for the market to go down in the news. Increasing m&a activity helped kick start this latest rally. Commodiies are in an extremely strong bull run; that doesn't hurt the market it helps it.

Of course, you'd never know this reading these guys. They are blind to reality, some have been spouting this bearish crap for 18 months ( wow, talk about clueless !!! ). If they traded their advice, they'd be in a deep financial hole right now.

On some level, it bothers me the lack of accountability these guys have for their bad calls. On another level, the lack of science in their reasoning bothers me. And lastly, the sheer repetition of their garbage posts in some cases makes one want to forget this site.

Is this really supposed to be a forum for intelligent, professional traders ? Or do these really bad amateurs rule the roost here, and its a waste of time expecting balanced intelligent discussion on this site ? I'm thinking there is too much garbage on here its a waste of time. Hell, I could probably give these guys some good shorts if I wanted to ( bull or bear market ), but why share there is too much bs going on to care.

 

One wonders about that. What do they get from those predictions? Certainly not money.

 

Once you've been here for a while, it's like anything else: 90% is dreck, but it's the other 10% that keeps it good.
What I've noticed is that the broken records tend to fade away: the ones who were bullish all through 2008 have disappeared, for instance. The ones who remain bearish through this phase will also disappear. The few who know how to trade or who at least know enough to keep their reserves in place when they're wrong so they live to speculate another day are the ones who continue.
Most of these user names won't be around this time next year.

 

There was no subtle point. Don't even try to go that route. I've presented objective data; you've presented anecdotal evidence. Case closed.

You've heard of leading indicators, right? If things are so wonderful, why did financials fall 1.6% today, and why have they fallen 4 of the last 5 days? Semiconductors are also doing very poorly.

You and rear-ender are obviously married to your long biases. I may go long with a sharp pullback, but will not expect anything more than a challenge of recent highs in the range. It's obvious who is getting emotionally involved here.

 

“We’re on the verge of the biggest bear market in nearly 300 years,” Prechter predicts. “Because the mania [the bull markets of 1982 to 1999 and 2003 to 2007] was so terrific, it will be followed by a negative trend in social mood that will lead to a complete retracement [to less than 1,000 on the Dow].”

“In a deflationary environment, the last thing you want is to own any financial asset,” Prechter added. “If you stay out of stocks, real estate, gold and other commodities, which will all come down together, then you can preserve your purchasing power [in cash] for the next great buying opportunity.”

Bear markets of this magnitude are “very rare,” Prechter admitted. “I’m taking a big risk [making such a forecast].”

http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-breakdown/


reminds me of Dow 36,000 headline for some reason...

 

Read my post again - maybe this time you will pick up the intent.

You don't trade real money - that much is obvious. Why did financials fall 1.6%? Because someone wanted to sell. There doesn't have to be a reason.

I make money on both sides of the market and appreciate intelligent discussion around economics and speculation. All you have to do is search my threads for my call history. I've made money shorting google and long appl - I could care less the direction.

 

Yes, I actually trade real money and I do real research and systematic testing. I seriously doubt you do either, one or two "calls" notwithstanding.

You simply avoided my question about financials and other leading indicators. That's not engaging or "discussing" anything "intelligently."

 

I answered your question point-blank about why financials went down. Read my post again; an answer doesn't need to be long or complicated to be correct.

As for leading indicators, it should be obvious that things change over time, including the validity of indicators.

 

Guys: 10:46AM, QQQQ at day's high: 48.99. Is it time to fade?