Krazykarl if you are in fact a contrarian trader then how's this for the ultimate contararian signal: yesterday as the dow was peaking at 10830, cramer was yelling on cnbc: this is a bull market. The administration in place: obama and ben are friends of the market. All indicators are up. I wish I had something bearish to say but I just don't. I wish I had recorded it. Cnbc sept 21s around 220pm
This is interesting. I've never actually seriously watched from one day to the next the sentiment of those stuck on the wrong side. Bull markets don't give easy entry. You're not going to get a big pullback unless and until you get a blowoff day. Monday may have qualified, but I don't think so; not enough volume. You need a lot more damage than what was done today to make the breakout of three weeks ago a false one.
true, we do need a lot more damage, I'm thinking the nasdaq should lose about 20% until the end of october. just remember the market has gone up a whopping 18 out of 19 times that the president was going into his second year within his first term. can't argue with numbers like those, on the basis of that alone and scratching all economic data the market's fair value should be at least twice as high. No individual company shall ever sell for a p/e of under 15 again. we have investors flush with cash all over the world pouring money into the american market. arab money, chinese money, russian money. illegal immigration, unemployment, drop outs, in/deflation, international tensions, civil tensions, foreclosed homes, shut down banks, aging population exiting market, younger population scared of market, U.S debt, natural disasters and jim cramers bullishness will all add to this rally's power.
Did someone set the calendar back to 1999? I've heard all this before... As for seasonality, I don't ignore it and consider the odds of certain patterns. But seasonality also has epic failures...usually just enough to keep more people from using it. Many seasonal patterns suggested 2008 would be a banner year, for example.
as I recall Apr top was by far more bullish than what we have today. The headlines were all bullish, Cramer announced 6 months to global prosperity (or something that nature), ET poll was all bullish, etc. But Mar-Apr 2010 advance was different from Sep 2010 in that it was more gradual. Therefore the sentiment is not expected to show the same level of bullishness now and then. Of course, I would rather see more bulls than what we have now to be comfortable holding Shorts purely on sentiment level.
I find this bull leg more scary than the April-March because it is coming out of a correction. If it breaks the april high, the bears among us may get burned. I did not like that rise in the second half of the afternoon. Bears need to show damage tomorrow Thursday to put a claim to the market command. I want to see a dump, like in that famous picture of yours. Alternatively, the pic of the hog and its killers would do it. The one I favor is the pic of rats leaving the sinking ship with their blanket boxes The good old days....We miss them.
there must be so much money in long positions that got triggered above 1131, on the false break to near 1150 two days ago, and once again on every small rally that happened during today's unusual sell off with nasdaq and small caps starting to weaken. the smart money is short, there is more money for them to make by selling this market down. adobe just tanked. should be ugly earnings all around, companies gotta start showing their numbers. emanuel and summers to leave the administration, never good news when officials start to bail on an organization.
It's not that I have to conduct it to be valid, that's the only way I know, for sure, that I can trust it, but I guess you missed my subtle point. Feel free to put massive amounts of shorts on - doesn't bother me at all. Just wondering, how long are you and your short buddies going to beat the "sky is falling" drum? 1300 enough? 1400 maybe?
Bad news is everywhere: unemployment, housing starts, housing prices, etc.. take your pick. Citing Cramer as a market indicator is foolish, same with cnbc - no professionals listen to either. Hell, just look at the threads around here, 90% of them are about us being in a depression or predicting the next crash.