bulls are crazy here IMHO. what kind of target may they have in mind? last time the rally failed miserably at SPY 113 in June. We are ~1% away from there. why bet that it even gets there, i am not even talking about breaking through? maybe "at the end of the month everything must go up" rational is taking place? what's the data to support this type of a claim? or is it the break above 200 dma? in june after a similar breakthrough 5 days later SPY was below 200 dma... beats me which so often means we can continue higher and higher....
The Stock Traders Almanac has studied the end of the month and claim that 401k money comes in at months end (and mid month) and immediately gets put to work. We're at the 200day MA, may stall here, would not be surprised if window dressing has come and gone already.
Damn it, I was thinking to short it after I take my dinner. It fell 1% in a "blink" of an eye (2 minutes for whole move?). Shortie would be dancing victory laps if AUD/JPY is correlated to equities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...h-at-institutions-as-individuals-retreat.html many fund managers are quite bullish: "...Institutions pushed equities up to 68 percent of their holdings in July, the highest level in 15 months, from 63 percent in April, a Citigroup Inc. survey showed. The ratio of bullish to bearish respondents in a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors has fallen to 0.68, the lowest level since July 2009, based on a four-week average. The last time money managers and individuals were this far apart was at the beginning of 2009, before the Standard & Poorâs 500 Index began its 63 percent rally, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It may signal another buying opportunity after concern the U.S. economy will fall into a recession wiped out $1.5 trillion from American equity values since April, according to Fritz Meyer, a Denver-based senior market strategist at Invesco Ltd., which oversees $558 billion. âThatâs good news,â Meyer said. âThe retail guy has gotten it wrong more than gotten it right. The odds favor a continued, reasonably healthy economic expansion.â ..."
"Institutions pushed equities up to 68 percent of their holdings in July, the highest level in 15 months, from 63 percent in April" to me this is a huge red flag. the institutions are the most invested since march 2009 rally! in the article they try to spin this as bullish based on the retail being bearish but i just don't buy it. the institutions control most of the money, so all institutions can't be the smart money by definition, only a small subset of them are really the smart money. i bet the institutions pushing equities to 68% are the dumb mofos here. i bet we are going down soon just like in April 2010.
If you have data such as the average expense ratio, I think I can develop a limit on where the market can go, in other words where the market cannot go.
I am bearish but I think you might be selectively reading the data that suits your thesis. From how I read it, there is a bullish bit and a bearish bit in the same article.