I second your proposal shortie. I would however add a question or change your question to something like: SPY will touch X before Y this month or week/etc. That is more meaningful for traders. X reflects the reward, and Y reflects the risk (where stops are to be placed).
Why are they buying? I have hard time understanding why someone would buy stocks after they have risen, and was avoiding them just few days ago.
"..., the hedge fund manager who sold half his equity holdings at the start of July, said today that signs the U.S. economy will avoid a recession spurred him to build the stakes back up. " He sold at the exact bottom, and bragged about it (he did not know it was the bottom on the day of his bragging). Now he is bragging that he is buying. Is he a bag holder?
so one bullish poll does not equal a sell-off, at least, not right away. drop later in the week, maybe?