Weekly Poll: Market Is Flat Year-To-Date, Where To Next?

My calculations last Friday told me that a rise of 0.5% is where I could fade market. I checked futures. Nasdaq-100 are in that range, up 8 points, so within a point or two from the 0.5% rise (if close is the same as where I did not numbers).

What do you think of the case of shorting it?

Shortie: thanks for the data. Very useful. I did not know that people were bullish.

 

My absolute best case scenario would be up in the first part of the week, and then down in the latter part.
Given we've got a window-dressing week coming, with the last day you could buy something and have it appear as something you own being Wednesday, I think this is quite doable.

 

Shortie,

Have you found any correlation or inverted correlation between your polls and the next weeks performance.

Does the market tank when everyone is bullish? Or visa versa?

cheers,

Runningbear

 

i have ~25 data points from ET polls since Feb 2010 but have not analyzed the data. my original premise was that fading the poll is the way to go. i would not be surprised if this is the case after the data is analyzed but the edge is probably small. i do look at the poll result each week and i watch the market every day so this where i get the feeling about the poll vs. the market.

the individual data points are spread out in this journal:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=190863

p.s. by eyeballing the previous polls in the journal: this one is unusually bullish (we had several such bullish polls before but they are rare). at least some of them preceded corrections.

 

Shortie and others: Above is currently the precise top for this evening's session. It has retreated by 4 points as of now (Nasdaq-100). I am kicking myself for not shorting it- I should quit trading, as I do not take signals. Did anyone short it?

 

Keep up the good work.


Runningbear

 

SPY at 111.07, and QQQQ at 46.25. Is it the area of the end of this move? Market is getting close to 0.50%

 

Market retreated to the area of the open. A heavy hitter (Shortie?) who likes dips seems to be buying and supporting this market. Shortie: if it is you, stop buying dips and let others live a little bit

 

fed

 

maybe we could have a monthly contest where elite traders could write down their predictions at the beginning of the month for the end of the month target. but the lack of participation will likely kill it.