Are you claiming that the majority of this board is usually wrong in direction therefore when a large percentage of the voting occurs on one specific side it suggests a good fade? NAD
no, it is not that simple. the lesson i have learned for myself is actually not to trade purely on the sentiment bias (either for or against the majority). the ebbs and flows of the sentiment do fascinate me.
QQQQ is at 57.93 (Monday Feb 07). A bird told me to watch out for danger starting at current price and 1.5% higher. What do you guys think? In addition, could someone suggest the best way to play the downside?
Shortie: Thanks for the kind comments. I had a look at egypt the last few hours, and it seems that the pressure is back again despite a number of concessions from the regime. If they run out of what they can give out, and the pressure mounts, I would not be surprised if Mubarak decides to take a medical leave to germany. Any thoughts on what might move the market on the way down? If the market retreats and there is no apparent reason, there is always the classic argument: profit taking.
This is interesting: Dollar ETF Call Trades Jump a Second Day as Greenback Declines Call vol on this is out of sight according to the article. Not sure if it's at all relevant, but it's certainly odd.
I would ride this bus till the music stops just keep a hand close to a chair at all time so you can jump on that chair just as the music stops.
i don't think it is going to be Egypt. the market is telling us that the chance of a major nasty surprise from over there is minuscule. the best drop is when there is no obvious reason for it and our Long friends begin having seconds thoughts about their investments. the market has defied gravity for such a long time it appears invincible. BTW, did you guys see that ^VXV (93 day S&P implied volatility index) reached 3 year LOW today? Is this complacency or reality?