Weekly Poll: Market at New Highs after Egypt Ignored. Where To Next?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Feb 4, 2011.

SPY Next Week?

Poll closed Feb 11, 2011.
  1. Bullish

    17 vote(s)
  2. Flat

    5 vote(s)
  3. Bearish

    8 vote(s)
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one

    1 vote(s)
  1. Bearish. Sentiment is up there, again.
    On Egypt, by Monday the higher probability thing is that Mubarak will have won. The problem is that won't last the full week. The EU has made it pretty plain the Egyptian gov't has lost all credibility with them. The US is divided as to whether to continue to aid Mubarak, but will probably have to continue if the protesters disperse.
    After that comes the radical option. Why? One need only look at this chart, from Bloomberg:

    Egypt's Stagnant Economic Growth Fuels Protests: Chart of the Day

    What you're dealing with here are people who quite literally have nothing to lose. That's a risk that is definitely not priced in.
  2. thestreet.com is bullish:

    Bullish 51.95% 93 votes
    Bearish 31.28% 56 votes
    Neutral 16.75% 30 votes
  3. the1


  4. does anybody have reliable market crash predictions? we are +25% since August
  5. Posted August 28th, 2010 :

    Thesis still holds basically except most of the pain that permabears felt from September 2010 to now could have been avoided. Hard to believe that people were predicting crashes last summer, but they were. The move up was fast enough however that if we climb through April another 10-15% as I suspect I think a minor correction around early May would be possible ( not a crash however ).

    Longer term trends involve some guesswork and margin of error but I think the bull market may last until summer 2012 at which point anything could happen. Depends on how high we go, if valuations get stretched, and if the US foreclosure/debt issues are real. At this point, equity valuations are quite reasonable ( even cheap in some areas ), and the US economy is recovering faster then expected.

    There really is no real reason for today's markets to crash. Can irrational fear trump technicals and fundamentals ? I don't think so. Too many people sold early 2009 and got burned doing so. Its fresh in their memories they won't do it again unless something seriously breaks down in corporate profits.
  6. I think there may be a down day this week, possibly two.
  7. Robert Shiller has an index that says stocks 35% overvalued. should i believe him or you? :confused:
  8. piezoe


    You should probably believe "you" , becaue Shiller is using logic and formulas, "you" is using reality. :D

    "theory predicts, reality contradicts"
  9. Bullish 9 52.94%
    Flat 4 23.53%
    Bearish 4 23.53%
    I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 0 0%
    Total: 17 votes 100%

    Last week the majority was bearish. Since then the market +2.5% and now the majority is bullish. how do you guys justify your viewpoint? Who is going to buy the expensive stuff from you down the road?
    #10     Feb 6, 2011