i am going on the record as a stubborn bear: SPY will touch 122 this week. i know that some of you may disagree with me because of the strong bullish seasonality in the last week of the year. but i will argue that December has been too easy for the bulls so far (so were Sep, Oct and even Nov). The party could end soon, might as well be during this coming week.
How many bullish weeks have we had in three months and what percentage of them have posters like Shortie predicted a down week ? Please, someone, restore my confidance in Shortie's sanity by pointing out any week since Sept. 1 that Shortie predicted a bullish week.
even a broken clock... i am sure that by now i am the only one who has the guts to defend myself since nobody will vouch for a loser predictor like myself. in my defense i will only state that i am trying to restore my dignity by sorting through my garbage predictions in an attempt to isolate those unique cases where i am actually likely to be correct: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=211370 this is still a work in progress...
Bearish. September & October were suppose to be bearish, they weren't. We rally on bad news, sell off on good news. We're suppose to have a Santa Claus rally, we may not have it. I have cash, partly long. If we sell off, I buy. If we rally, I sell.
Still thinking Jan is not going to be good, but this coming week is just going to be a sleeper. GDX is pointing higher, the dollar looks sluggish. That's bullish, but the overall (to me) bearish background is still there. Flat. You can fade me at will by buying a strangle or straddle. The one interesting thing that will probably happen this week will be a rise in IV in anticipation of a resumption of the festivities in Jan. I have vertical spreads on GDX that gained in price even as GDX itself fell a bit, just because IV notched a small rise. That's how low IV has gotten here. So, who knows, long straddles or strangles just might work.
"The Peopleâs Bank of China increased key one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points on Christmas Day in its second move since mid-October. The change took effect yesterday." ~1% drop in the market on Monday? the news was expected, 0.25bp is small.
More US economic news on Tueday and Thursday will guide the market. My guess is up 1-4% this week. Usually some new buyers come in early January at which point I plan on taking profits. I think the downside long is fairly limited until then. New trade idea is shorting certain metals plays in January. Continued strength in the US economy could kill the metal rally and speculators may shift their money elsewhere. I'm expecting huge volatility in January going into options expiry and will be looking for opportunities to make money overnight in either direction.