"History Suggests Bullish Bias" = "SPY only sheds ~5% by Friday noon" History can be deceiving. - Shortie Popper Out
Are we going to have the fireworks this afternoon? At 1:29PM: we start the countdown! The jobs report was very bad, yet the market traded in the green. Where are those who wrote, a bad report and we have a crash? Remember what I wrote here? The stock market influences the economy. The economy does not influence the stock market.
Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change -125,000 -200,000 to 0 -125,000 Private Payrolls - M/M change 105,000 50,000 to 200,000 83,000 Unemployment Rate - Level 9.8 % 9.6 % to 9.9 % 9.5 % the report was ~ what was expected
The market is down ~10% in the last 10 trading days and ~5% in the last 5 trade days. I don't know what you consider a crash but, historically, 10% in 10 days would be considered a major event.
10% in 10 days is normal actually, if day one is the top day. People buy when market has risen, and sell when it has fallen. They should do the opposite. My comment about crash was related to jobs report--- notice that the market has fallen for no reason and was expected to rise on day 1 when chinese came with Yuan. I wrote that it was bearish. My comment was odd when compared to other comments, but the market did that. PS: Yuan valuation is like an end on tax cut for consumers. People viewed it as more US business in chinese market, which is nonsense as the chinese are not consumers.
It has been rising since 1:29PM. I did not know all we had to do is ask the start of the countdown. Since no one responded the market decided to take care of on its own
I think buyers are patiently waiting for the SPX to drop below 1000 and find some support around 980 before they even consider buying, however with the market down as much as it is in such little time I think momentum could certainly build to the upside next week especially if the markets see an early turn around next week and head higher, most waiting for the drop below 1000 will rush into buy because they might not want to miss the 1-3% rally. I sold off some short etfs and went long QLD, USD and URE this past week, looking for 5-10% upside in some of these etfs over the next week or two, however I still remain EXTREMELY bearish.