i would have expected some anxiety before FOMC but VIX -3% while SPY only +0.4%. is this a sign of complacency?
No offense shortie, but your weekly polls were supposed to show where the sentiment is, and provide fading opportunities. I have two observations. 1) There are more bears than bulls on your poll. This means buy. 2) The poll is equally weighted -- it seems to me that posters with high post counts (adjusted for age of account) have less accuracy -- i.e. fade them. I am open to whatever you interpret for me, but S2007S has a high post count which is a bigger fade than a rare post from a bull. You also have a high post count, shortie. Just my empirical observations, which I assume is the reason you are doing this weekly polls.
we had more bears than bulls, but we already went up. 1300 seems an important level but everybody talks about it so maybe it will get violated even if briefly. i am betting that it will hold (+1%) p.s NineEnder is a drama queen. he is not going anywhere. probably is already back with a new alias (has done it many times i believe)
The reason for my post count is that I don't use 15 different names like 98% of the fools on here. I use ONE and only ONE name....I keep my opinion and don't change it under other aliases!!!
if one is managing a fund and is long he is +3% for Jan. let's say the market is expected to go up maybe 12% this year. how much more could he hope to squeeze in January? if that manager is not selling today, he is probably a fool.
The market is not the Dow. In my case, my longs went down and my shorts went down. Would you believe that? I am long Cloud computing stocks -- FFIV got killed. I am short China plays. It has been a challenging month -- being long, not short, at least for me.
I respect your persistence -- if you are bearish, why not on HDB or FXI? Isn't the real estate bubble in Emerging Markets more exciting for shorts, than the US bubble that has already deflated? I am making a killing on my shorts -- it is the longs that I need to improve on!
I used to play the game of fading the moves before a Fed announcement. Not any more. I mean, it's not like they're saying anything we don't already know: 1 - QE will continue. 2 - There won't be another round. The only thing that could crack this market bigtime would be if they hinted at a beginning to a new raising campaign in this announcement, but I don't see that. Too soon. There may be some danger of that in the next statement from the next meeting after this one. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm not hedging my gains a bit now. I'm not insane.