Weekly Poll: Dow Up 8 Weeks in a Row. Implications for the market?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Jan 22, 2011.

SPY Next Week?

Poll closed Jan 29, 2011.
  1. Bullish

    16 vote(s)
    39.0%
  2. Flat

    4 vote(s)
    9.8%
  3. Bearish

    18 vote(s)
    43.9%
  4. I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one

    3 vote(s)
    7.3%
  1. i would have expected some anxiety before FOMC but VIX -3% while SPY only +0.4%. is this a sign of complacency?
     
    #21     Jan 26, 2011
  2. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    No offense shortie, but your weekly polls were supposed to show where the sentiment is, and provide fading opportunities. I have two observations.
    1) There are more bears than bulls on your poll. This means buy.
    2) The poll is equally weighted -- it seems to me that posters with high post counts (adjusted for age of account) have less accuracy -- i.e. fade them. I am open to whatever you interpret for me, but S2007S has a high post count which is a bigger fade than a rare post from a bull. You also have a high post count, shortie.

    Just my empirical observations, which I assume is the reason you are doing this weekly polls.
     
    #22     Jan 26, 2011
  3. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Please don't give up -- given my observations, you are in the low post count category.
     
    #23     Jan 26, 2011
  4. we had more bears than bulls, but we already went up.

    1300 seems an important level but everybody talks about it so maybe it will get violated even if briefly. i am betting that it will hold (+1%)

    p.s NineEnder is a drama queen. he is not going anywhere. probably is already back with a new alias (has done it many times i believe)
     
    #24     Jan 26, 2011
  5. S2007S

    S2007S

    The reason for my post count is that I don't use 15 different names like 98% of the fools on here. I use ONE and only ONE name....I keep my opinion and don't change it under other aliases!!!
     
    #25     Jan 26, 2011
  6. if one is managing a fund and is long he is +3% for Jan.

    let's say the market is expected to go up maybe 12% this year. how much more could he hope to squeeze in January? if that manager is not selling today, he is probably a fool.
     
    #26     Jan 26, 2011
  7. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    you gotta admire this kids spunk. Dont ever change your handle.
     
    #27     Jan 26, 2011
  8. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    The market is not the Dow. In my case, my longs went down and my shorts went down. Would you believe that? I am long Cloud computing stocks -- FFIV got killed. I am short China plays. It has been a challenging month -- being long, not short, at least for me.
     
    #28     Jan 26, 2011
  9. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    I respect your persistence -- if you are bearish, why not on HDB or FXI? Isn't the real estate bubble in Emerging Markets more exciting for shorts, than the US bubble that has already deflated? I am making a killing on my shorts -- it is the longs that I need to improve on!
     
    #29     Jan 26, 2011
  10. I used to play the game of fading the moves before a Fed announcement. Not any more. I mean, it's not like they're saying anything we don't already know:

    1 - QE will continue.
    2 - There won't be another round.

    The only thing that could crack this market bigtime would be if they hinted at a beginning to a new raising campaign in this announcement, but I don't see that. Too soon. There may be some danger of that in the next statement from the next meeting after this one.
    Of course, that doesn't mean I'm not hedging my gains a bit now. I'm not insane.
     
    #30     Jan 26, 2011