bad news, good news the bull run continues no matter what. there was a pause in November but now the bulls seem to be back and as strong as ever. do we have a guaranteed bull run into the end of year? if we do, what's the catch to this risk-free return?
i am bringing out my greedy-bull-who-turned-into-pig picture with a secret hope that it will scare the bulls next week.
i must confess here that i got this bull run totally wrong. one of the things that confused me were several DOW stocks that were in a persistent down trend since May and totally refused to participate in the latest 3-month run-up. BAC, CSCO, HPQ - are the culprits.
Well we've got the Christmas rally starting now, so that guarantees that we've got a month or so of decent upside coming up. Its funny how everyone wants to be a bear though. The ES will always go up over time. It HAS too. I like to trade with that bias on my side and only ever go long. So far so good! Everyone (bar 2 or 3 posters) in the ES thread are constantly bearish waiting for the drop that never comes and they just seem to short and short and the market goes up and up. They're mad! lol Its the same cylce over and over again. Like recently we'd be flying up loads everyday with everyone trying to catch the top and getting killed. Then they seemed to give up calling the tops. Maybe ran out of money. Then the market drops for a few days. They all crawl out of the woodwork and declare that they were right and 'the crash' has now began! lol. We then reverse back to the upside and that drop was asctually just an opportunity to add to longs. Fact is 1500 ES is GUARANTEED at some point. 1000 ES is NOT guaranteed and is actually very unlikely. For ES trading, its best to trade with the government ON YOUR SIDE! Long is the only way
Bearish. Friday was a blowoff. If you didn't know how much the major indices moved, but were told that the VIX, bonds and the dollar fell sharply, and gold and gold stocks both had excellent days, you'd guess the averages went up big time, right? It looked like a day when bears capitulated everywhere, even though the averages didn't move much. Downward momentum on RVX, the volatility index for the Russell, is at ridiculous levels, not seen since about a week before the Feb 27 2007 debacle that announced the start of the crisis (I have my own measure for this). Not saying that's going to happen at all, just saying nothing is pointing to any fuel remaining for the bull run at this point. We need a pause.
As a day trader or short term swing trader, you want to make money each day, whether the market is running up or down. Intraday yesterday there was ES downside and upside opportunity at nearly equal levels, with the bears able to pack in their loot and call it a day for 14 points in about 40 minutes and the bulls having to wait 7 hours for their 12 points of upside. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I got the impression you're a day trader or short term swing trader trading an ES contract which expires quarterly. I also believe you trade long only and without protective stops (again if I'm wrong about that let me know). There's a far greater chance of ES dropping to 1000 before the Dec contract expires than of it reaching 1500 before the contract expires. A major news event can hit and ES can drop to a halt level and re-open even lower, then take months or years to recover, well beyond the expiration of the contract. I doubt there's a news event that would drive it to 1500 that quickly. EDIT: I would guess that anyone who's blown a trading or investment account used the word "guaranteed" at one point or another.
Cramer sounds bullish (good sign for the bears) but he is still not as bullish as around Apr top: He said the calendar is now in investors' favor, as the big mutual and hedge funds have begun buying on any weakness to bolster their portfolios before year's end. Add this buying to already strong earnings and outlooks, and Cramer said the new year is looking brighter already.... ...Cramer said the big news of next week will of course be the jobless claims number on Thursday. He said even if things stay bad however, that's still good news for stocks, as it will put even more pressure on President Obama to extend unemployment benefits and cut taxes.... http://www.thestreet.com/story/10938184/1/cramers-mad-money-recap-next-weeks-game-plan-update-1.html
"...During the interview, Bernanke will explain the Fed's decision to launch a second round of quantitative easing (QE2) and defend the program against criticisms from inflation hawks. Perhaps more importantly, CBS reported that Bernanke did not rule out the possibility of more asset purchases, meaning a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is possible. The interview was taped on November 30 and will air Sunday, December 5..." http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/88805/20101204/qe3-fed.htm why would Ben even bring out QE3 NOW? if i must speculate i say that he is scared shirtless that's why he throws all his punches now. mark my words! the numbers this dude knows suggest to him that something ugly is about to happen.
No guarantee. Christmas rallies have been quite ho-hum in recent years. This is particularly true when a rally starts in the early fall. The best Christmas rallies occur if there's a September-October correction and stocks don't start moving back up until November.
There is no catch the market is being driven by strong earnings. It is utterly amazing how much permabear yapping goes on at this site. Not one of you ever notes earnings reports and what they mean. Basically we've gone from 1041 to 1221 and the whole move around 12 of you are nonstop doubters ( a comedy of errors ). All technical indicators were up the ENTIRE MOVE. Higher highs, higher lows and all we see on here is "I'm calling a top right now" or "Market will crash this week". I think its pretty obvious the top is about to be broken. Triple tops usually don't occur the second retest is a breakout more times then not. Overall market rise this year is underwhelming considering the earnings results. Overall P/E levels are quite reasonable. I can hardly wait for FlyDown's next thread. Something like "Will the S&P go to 1400 or 1200 first", where he can tell us how he sold 1300 calls. Of course, I think he's already sold 1250's now which could get pretty interesting next week. Others like Hajimow were selling 26 calls in TXN wondering what the hell happened. Oh I know, he's "rolling them over" next month, whatever that's supposed to mean. Fact is, I'm guessing a 300-600% loss on that kind of miss is likely. Eventually, there will be a retracement phase. At which point, a bunch of you will claim calls are correct and victories that people with short memories will believe. A closer look at investment statements however would reveal a bunch of shorts bleeding major red ink and wiping out a huge chunk of their funds. Best case would be most of you are pretend or paper traders and its only people following your advice that are losing money.