Funny. I'm bearish this week because..... well...uh....the Bears beat the Vikings so the Bears will beat the Bulls this week. Seriously, we're due for a correction
You know my views guys since the eve of last Friday for currencies, and friday morning for stocks. There were: 1. EUR/USD support around 1.36 area. (now trading above 1.37). 2. Bounce in stocks. The last visit to the highs before the real retreat. The pros in twitter are saying a bear leg in EUR/USD, and shorted below 1.3660. They currently hanged. Once they decide to cover, then the real move will start. Summary: it would be a range bound type of rise, unless the bears who short friday get scared, and start covering their ashes.
Markets have nothing to do with that crap. I posted on Shortie's thread since a week ago saying what the direction, and asking what the explanation would be. During the move they were talking QE2. Once they realize it does not make sense with dollar move, they bring a more suitable news. I wonder how they will explain the down move in the dollar, which I wrote about here on eve of Friday, when they were talking and still are talking about china and Ireland. Once they explain it, then it will be time to flip the burger.
I always admire courageous people who short/long after a move is already well underway. Good luck to you. I will be on the sideline. I sold some puts on Friday.
Risk/reward says go long, or do not play. SPY's friday bottom less than 1% from a support. I like you my friend, and I like all people on the thread of our dear friend shortie, so I wish you the best even if I lose money, on my short put. (only one put from a poor ETer )
I would keep this in mind: markets are not influenced by economy, but the economy is influenced by markets. Crises and solutions come from markets. I would use markets to predict economy/crisis solutions, not the other way around.
There may be possible that the effect of QE2 has been discounted by the market, because people knew it was coming and the dollar dropped around 20% from its recent peak. Given the fresh problem of EU and china's measures against inflation, dollar may not decline from here. who knows?
I was on Twitter. EUR/USD at 1.3660 area, and tweets saying to short. The bucket shop twitters are talking about the selloff. I went LONG. Let us see who will be the bagholder on this one. Me or them.
1.3660 area has been the bottom. EUR/USD higher by some 20 pips. Now EUR/USD at 1.3686. They cannot get me on this one---I am safe. The twitting guys were nailed on this one.